ClosingLine
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College games

Boston College at Notre Dame

Boston College4-5
2%
#3 Notre Dame8-1
98%

Notre Dame wins 9,788 of 10,000 sims. Market: 95%

Line
ND −30.0mkt −29.0
Total
54mkt 52.5
ND covers
51%
Over 52.5
55%
Median score
11–42

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price and Kalshi price for each team to win
ContractSimsKalshi
Boston College wins2¢3¢
Notre Dame wins98¢98¢

10,000 simulated final scores

ND covers −29.0 in 51%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market ND −29.0← BC wins by moreND wins by more →
ND covers BC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

College numbers come from a ratings model: team strength and home field set the expected margin and total, then 10,000 final scores are drawn around them. The NFL games are simulated snap by snap instead. Data: CollegeFootballData.com.