NBA 2026–27 · updated
NBA
Every game in the next three days, played 10,000 times from who's actually playing: each player's rating and projected minutes, with the injury report taken out. Win probability, spread and total, next to the betting line and Kalshi. Early in the season the ratings lean on last season. No picks.
MIL Bucks26%mkt 23%+8.9mkt −9.5O 227mkt 224.523¢
ORL Magic 4 out74%mkt 77%−8.9mkt +9.5U 227mkt 224.578¢
NY Knicks71%mkt 74%−8.2mkt +8.5O 223mkt 219.576¢
IND Pacers 3 out29%mkt 26%+8.2mkt −8.5U 223mkt 219.525¢
MEM Grizzlies 4 out69%mkt 59%−7.1mkt +3.5O 238mkt 235.560¢
NO Pelicans 5 out31%mkt 41%+7.1mkt −3.5U 238mkt 235.541¢
ATL Hawks 4 out71%mkt 71%−8.2mkt +6.5O 242mkt 245.571¢
CHI Bulls 2 out30%mkt 29%+8.2mkt −6.5U 242mkt 245.530¢
CLE Cavaliers 2 out54%mkt 45%−1.7mkt −2.5O 240mkt 236.545¢
MIA Heat46%mkt 55%+1.7mkt +2.5U 240mkt 236.556¢
UTAH Jazz 4 out6%mkt 11%+21.9mkt −15.5O 229mkt 220.510¢
HOU Rockets 2 out94%mkt 89%−21.9mkt +15.5U 229mkt 220.591¢
GS Warriors 5 out29%mkt 16%+8.0mkt −12.5O 230mkt 217.516¢
SA Spurs 2 out71%mkt 84%−8.0mkt +12.5U 230mkt 217.585¢
POR Trail Blazers 4 out84%mkt 79%−14.7mkt +10.5O 231mkt 229.581¢
SAC Kings 3 out16%mkt 21%+14.7mkt −10.5U 231mkt 229.520¢
OKC Thunder 5 out60%mkt 71%−3.6mkt +7.5O 223mkt 222.572¢
LAC Clippers 4 out40%mkt 29%+3.6mkt −7.5U 223mkt 222.529¢
DEN Nuggets 1 out82%mkt –−13.0mkt –O 240mkt –84¢NO Pelicans 5 out18%mkt –+13.0mkt –U 240mkt –17¢
DAL Mavericks 3 out44%mkt –+2.1mkt –O 234mkt –43¢CLE Cavaliers 2 out56%mkt –−2.1mkt –U 234mkt –59¢CHI Bulls 2 out3%mkt –+25.9mkt –O 238mkt –12¢
MIN Timberwolves 2 out97%mkt –−25.9mkt –U 238mkt –89¢
DET Pistons 2 out68%mkt –−6.5mkt –O 234mkt –64¢MIA Heat32%mkt –+6.5mkt –U 234mkt –38¢
BKN Nets33%mkt –+6.1mkt –O 228mkt –37¢MEM Grizzlies 4 out67%mkt –−6.1mkt –U 228mkt –64¢IND Pacers 3 out27%mkt –+8.7mkt –O 228mkt –20¢
PHI 76ers 3 out73%mkt –−8.7mkt –U 228mkt –80¢
LAL Lakers54%mkt –−1.4mkt –O 229mkt –65¢
PHX Suns 1 out46%mkt –+1.4mkt –U 229mkt –35¢
CHA Hornets 2 out28%mkt –+8.1mkt –O 220mkt –42¢LAC Clippers 4 out72%mkt –−8.1mkt –U 220mkt –60¢SA Spurs 2 out89%mkt –−17.8mkt –O 233mkt –91¢UTAH Jazz 4 out11%mkt –+17.8mkt –U 233mkt –11¢NY Knicks58%mkt –−3.1mkt –O 221mkt –65¢
TOR Raptors 3 out42%mkt –+3.1mkt –U 221mkt –36¢DAL Mavericks 3 out25%mkt –+9.5mkt –O 223mkt –17¢
BOS Celtics75%mkt –−9.5mkt –U 223mkt –84¢HOU Rockets 2 out82%mkt –−13.0mkt –O 228mkt –82¢
WSH Wizards 4 out18%mkt –+13.0mkt –U 228mkt –19¢ATL Hawks 4 out70%mkt –−7.8mkt –O 232mkt –75¢MIL Bucks30%mkt –+7.8mkt –U 232mkt –27¢OKC Thunder 5 out79%mkt –−11.4mkt –O 225mkt –85¢SAC Kings 3 out21%mkt –+11.4mkt –U 225mkt –16¢On every game of 2025–26, replayed with only what was known before tip-off, the sims picked the winner 70% of the time; the betting favorite, 69%. The market's percentages were sharper, so treat a gap as a question, not an answer. How accurate it is →
Data: ESPN via sportsdataverse. Lines: DraftKings via ESPN.