ClosingLine
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1,219 games graded since 2022

How accurate is it?

Every game since 2022, simulated with only what was known before kickoff and graded against the result. The benchmark is the betting market, the hardest one there is.

Since 2022

Picks the winner63%Betting favorite: 68%
Misses the final margin by9.9 ptsBetting line: 9.5 pts
Misses the total by10.5 ptsBetting total: 10.2 pts

2026 season, live

Week by week →
Closer to the final margin, sims–market26–443 ties · Average miss: sims 9.8 pts, market 9.3
Closer to the total, sims–market32–41Average miss: sims 11.0 pts, market 10.4
Picked the winner, sims–market49–50Out of 73 games
Against the spread30–42–142% · 52.4% breaks even at −110
Over / under36–3749%
GameFinalWinner: sims · mktLine: sims · mktCloserTotal: sims · mktCloserATSO/U
Wk 10 · WAS at NYG24–21✗ · ✗NYG −1.0 · NYG −1.5Sims43 · 40.5SimsWW
Wk 9 · BUF at MIN23–6✓ · ✓BUF −1.0 · BUF −3.5Market45 · 45.5SimsLW
Wk 9 · TB at CHI24–27✓ · ✓CHI −4.0 · CHI −6.0Sims44 · 47.5MarketWL
Wk 9 · ARI at SEA3–17✓ · ✓SEA −6.0 · SEA −8.5Market41 · 39.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · GB at NE45–27✗ · ✗NE −2.0 · NE −3.0Sims47 · 44.5SimsWW
Wk 9 · LV at SF17–38✓ · ✓SF −7.0 · SF −8.5Market49 · 51.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · HOU at LAC44–22✓ · ✓HOU −2.0 · HOU −5.5Market40 · 40.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · LA at WAS20–13✓ · ✓LA −4.0 · LA −4.5Market45 · 47.5SimsLW
Wk 9 · NYG at PHI19–11✗ · ✓Pick · NYG −3.0Market41 · 38.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · CLE at NO22–23✓ · ✓NO −4.0 · NO −3.0Market41 · 42.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · DET at MIA19–9✓ · ✓DET −4.0 · DET −6.5Market48 · 50.5SimsLW
Wk 9 · NYJ at KC12–35✓ · ✓KC −7.0 · KC −9.5Market48 · 48.5SimsLW
Wk 9 · DAL at IND27–23✓ · ✓DAL −3.0 · DAL −4.5Market48 · 51.5MarketWW
Wk 9 · DEN at CAR26–21✓ · ✓DEN −1.0 · DEN −2.5Market44 · 44.5MarketLL
Wk 9 · CIN at ATL34–17✗ · ✓ATL −1.0 · CIN −3.0Market45 · 52.5MarketLW
Wk 9 · JAX at BAL33–10✓ · ✓JAX −6.0 · JAX −10.0Market43 · 39.5SimsLW
Wk 8 · CHI at SEA34–17✗ · ✗SEA −3.0 · SEA −3.5Sims44 · 46.5MarketWL
Wk 8 · PHI at WAS10–27✓ · ✓WAS −3.0 · WAS −6.0Market45 · 40.5MarketLL
Wk 8 · NE at MIA24–19✓ · ✓NE −5.0 · NE −7.0Sims45 · 41.5MarketWW
Wk 8 · KC at DEN24–28✓ · ✗DEN −2.0 · KC −1.5Sims46 · 41.5SimsWW
Wk 8 · LAC at LA9–24✓ · ✓LA −8.0 · LA −6.5Sims41 · 45.5SimsWW
Wk 8 · ATL at TB0–16✓ · ✓TB −3.0 · TB −2.5Sims41 · 43.5SimsWW
Wk 8 · CLE at PIT6–27✓ · ✓PIT −4.0 · PIT −3.5Sims41 · 38.5MarketWL
Wk 8 · LV at NYJ38–33✗ · ✗NYJ −2.0 · NYJ −1.5Market43 · 46.5MarketLL
Wk 8 · IND at JAX7–42✓ · ✓JAX −7.0 · JAX −10.0Market45 · 46.5MarketLL
Wk 8 · MIN at DET15–19✓ · ✓DET −3.0 · DET −3.0Tie44 · 46.5SimsWW
Wk 8 · ARI at DAL33–30✗ · ✗DAL −5.0 · DAL −7.0Sims51 · 54.5MarketWL
Wk 8 · TEN at CIN36–43✓ · ✓CIN −12.0 · CIN −12.5Sims44 · 46.5MarketWL
Wk 8 · BAL at BUF10–36✓ · ✓BUF −4.0 · BUF −3.0Sims52 · 54.5SimsWW
Wk 8 · CAR at GB19–27✓ · ✓GB −7.0 · GB −3.5Sims46 · 46.5SimsWW
Wk 7 · DAL at PHI38–21✗ · ✓PHI −3.0 · DAL −4.5Market48 · 43.5SimsLW
Wk 7 · KC at SEA3–20✗ · ✓KC −1.0 · SEA −3.0Market45 · 43.5MarketLL
Wk 7 · LA at LV35–21✓ · ✓LA −3.0 · LA −3.5Market45 · 48.5MarketLL
Wk 7 · GB at DET17–20✓ · ✓DET −2.0 · DET −3.5Market51 · 55.5SimsWW
Wk 7 · DEN at ARI30–16✓ · ✓DEN −3.0 · DEN −4.5Market44 · 43.5SimsLW
Wk 7 · CLE at TEN27–24✓ · ✓CLE −3.0 · CLE −2.5Sims39 · 36.5SimsWW
Wk 7 · MIA at NYJ28–25✗ · ✗NYJ −4.0 · NYJ −3.5Market41 · 39.5SimsLW
Wk 7 · IND at MIN10–16✓ · ✓MIN −7.0 · MIN −6.5Market40 · 41.5SimsLW
Wk 7 · NYG at HOU27–21✗ · ✗HOU −7.0 · HOU −10.5Sims42 · 42.5MarketWL
Wk 7 · TB at CAR43–13✗ · ✗CAR −6.0 · CAR −3.0Market42 · 44.5MarketLL
Wk 7 · CIN at BAL35–13✓ · ✓CIN −2.0 · CIN −3.0Market45 · 46.5MarketLL
Wk 7 · SF at ATL20–29✗ · ✗SF −3.0 · SF −2.5Market46 · 49.5MarketLW
Wk 7 · PIT at NO16–10✓ · ✓Pick · PIT −3.0Market43 · 42.5MarketLL
Wk 7 · NE at CHI24–30✓ · ✓CHI −2.0 · CHI −3.0Market47 · 50.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · WAS at SF17–23✓ · ✓SF −8.0 · SF −7.5Market49 · 52.5SimsLW
Wk 6 · DAL at GB13–23✓ · ✗GB −6.0 · DAL −1.5Sims53 · 53.5SimsWW
Wk 6 · BUF at LV33–30✓ · ✓BUF −3.0 · BUF −5.5Sims50 · 53.5MarketWL
Wk 6 · LAC at KC6–22✓ · ✓KC −7.0 · KC −7.5Market43 · 41.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · ARI at LA18–16✗ · ✗LA −10.0 · LA −12.5Sims48 · 51.5SimsWW
Wk 6 · PIT at TB26–19✗ · ✓TB −2.0 · PIT −1.5Market42 · 38.5SimsLW
Wk 6 · CAR at PHI25–14✓ · ✓CAR −2.0 · CAR −3.0Market42 · 39.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · NO at NYG34–27✗ · ✗NYG −2.0 · NO −1.5Market42 · 46.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · NYJ at NE19–26✓ · ✓NE −8.0 · NE −7.5Market43 · 43.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · TEN at IND26–20✗ · ✗IND −7.0 · IND −6.5Market43 · 43.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · BAL at CLE10–13✗ · ✗BAL −3.0 · BAL −3.0Tie44 · 39.5MarketWL
Wk 6 · CHI at ATL31–23✗ · ✓ATL −3.0 · CHI −1.5Market44 · 51.5MarketLL
Wk 6 · HOU at JAX34–31✗ · ✗JAX −5.0 · JAX −2.5Market43 · 42.5SimsLW
Wk 6 · SEA at DEN14–17✓ · ✗DEN −4.0 · SEA −2.5Sims40 · 40.5SimsWW
Wk 5 · BUF at LA37–34✗ · ✗LA −3.0 · LA −3.5Sims50 · 54.5MarketWL
Wk 5 · BAL at ATL30–23✗ · ✗ATL −5.0 · ATL −3.5Market41 · 43.5MarketLL
Wk 5 · SF at SEA32–29✓ · ✗SF −3.0 · SEA −3.0Sims47 · 46.5SimsWW
Wk 5 · DET at ARI45–21✓ · ✓DET −3.0 · DET −5.5Market49 · 55.5MarketLL
Wk 5 · DEN at LAC23–17✓ · ✓DEN −2.0 · DEN −3.5Market41 · 42.5SimsLW
Wk 5 · NYG at WAS27–27– · –WAS −5.0 · WAS −3.5Market41 · 41.5MarketLL
Wk 5 · HOU at TEN26–3✓ · ✓HOU −3.0 · HOU −6.5Market41 · 37.5MarketLL
Wk 5 · IND at PIT22–34✓ · ✓PIT −3.0 · PIT −3.0Tie43 · 41.5SimsLW
Wk 5 · CLE at NYJ12–17✓ · ✓NYJ −1.0 · NYJ −2.5Market41 · 38.5MarketLL
Wk 5 · MIN at NO23–13✓ · ✓MIN −3.0 · MIN −1.5Sims41 · 41.5SimsWW
Wk 5 · LV at NE17–45✓ · ✓NE −5.0 · NE −3.5Sims43 · 45.5MarketWL
Wk 5 · CIN at MIA31–24✓ · ✓CIN −3.0 · CIN −7.0Market45 · 44.5SimsPW
Wk 5 · CHI at GB7–31✓ · ✗GB −3.0 · CHI −1.5Sims47 · 47.5SimsWW
Wk 5 · PHI at JAX17–19✓ · ✓JAX −7.0 · JAX −7.5Sims44 · 41.5MarketWL
Wk 5 · TB at DAL24–16✗ · ✗DAL −5.0 · DAL −9.5Sims47 · 48.5SimsWW

Player projections

Landed between floor and ceiling49%Should be about 50%: the floor and ceiling are the middle half of sims
Beat the median projection46%Should be about 50%: higher means projections run low
Stat lines graded1,502142 more didn't play

Do the percentages hold up?

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Model said 24%, home won 20% (40 games)Model said 36%, home won 33% (116 games)Model said 46%, home won 40% (229 games)Model said 55%, home won 50% (346 games)Model said 65%, home won 65% (287 games)Model said 77%, home won 82% (201 games)Model's home win probabilityHome actually won

When the model gives a team 70%, that team should win about 70% of the time. Each dot is a group of games; on the dashed line means the percentages held up. Bigger dots are more games.

Detailed numbersFor the stats-minded

Log loss (lower is better): model 0.632, market 0.610. Seasons 2022–2024 were used to set the model up; 2025 + 2026 wk 1–9 were never used for that, so those rows count most.

Against the spread, when the model and the market disagree by at least…

Seasons0.5 pts1.5 pts2.5 pts3.5 pts
2022–2024 · spread320–348 48%230–235 49%161–149 52%103–87 54%
2022–2024 · total374–339 52%257–241 52%173–165 51%112–106 51%
2025 + 2026 wk 1–9 (unseen) · spread168–176 49%113–127 47%68–74 48%38–41 48%
2025 + 2026 wk 1–9 (unseen) · total168–178 49%111–128 46%73–77 49%39–41 49%

You need 52.4% to break even at standard −110 prices.

By season

SeasonGamesWinners, modelWinners, marketMargin miss, modelMargin miss, market
202226961%66%9.18.8
202327263%68%10.49.9
202427266%71%10.09.6
202527162%65%10.29.7
202613564%69%9.89.5