Week 10 · sims · prices
Markets
The sims' price in cents next to the books, Kalshi and Polymarket. A contract pays $1 if it hits.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DET winsNE at DET | 59¢ | 57¢ | +2¢less than fee | 58¢ | – |
 NE winsNE at DET | 41¢ | 43¢ | −2¢less than fee | 43¢ | – |
| DET −2.5NE at DET | 54¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +4¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 49.5NE at DET | 53¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +3¢less than fee | – | – |
 ATL winsKC at ATL | 44¢ | 38¢ | +7¢ | 38¢ | – |
 KC winsKC at ATL | 56¢ | 62¢ | −7¢ | 63¢ | – |
| ATL +3.0KC at ATL | 52¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +2¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 47.5KC at ATL | 45¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −5¢less than fee | – | – |
 CLE winsHOU at CLE | 43¢ | 32¢ | +11¢ | 32¢ | – |
 HOU winsHOU at CLE | 57¢ | 68¢ | −11¢ | 68¢ | – |
| CLE +4.5HOU at CLE | 57¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +7¢ | – | – |
| Over 40.5HOU at CLE | 57¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +7¢ | – | – |
 GB winsMIN at GB | 65¢ | 58¢ | +7¢ | 59¢ | – |
 MIN winsMIN at GB | 35¢ | 42¢ | −7¢ | 42¢ | – |
| GB −3.0MIN at GB | 58¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +8¢ | – | – |
| Over 42.5MIN at GB | 51¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +1¢less than fee | – | – |
 IND winsMIA at IND | 56¢ | 64¢ | −9¢ | 67¢ | – |
 MIA winsMIA at IND | 44¢ | 36¢ | +9¢ | 34¢ | – |
| IND −3.5MIA at IND | 46¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −4¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 38.5MIA at IND | 60¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +10¢ | – | – |
 NO winsCAR at NO | 49¢ | 55¢ | −6¢less than fee | 56¢ | – |
 CAR winsCAR at NO | 51¢ | 45¢ | +6¢less than fee | 45¢ | – |
| NO −2.5CAR at NO | 45¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −5¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 48.5CAR at NO | 43¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −7¢ | – | – |
 NYJ winsBUF at NYJ | 30¢ | 22¢ | +7¢ | 21¢ | – |
 BUF winsBUF at NYJ | 70¢ | 78¢ | −7¢ | 80¢ | – |
| NYJ +8.5BUF at NYJ | 58¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +8¢ | – | – |
| Over 50.5BUF at NYJ | 43¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −7¢ | – | – |
 TEN winsJAX at TEN | 22¢ | 17¢ | +5¢less than fee | 17¢ | – |
 JAX winsJAX at TEN | 78¢ | 83¢ | −5¢less than fee | 84¢ | – |
| TEN +10.5JAX at TEN | 55¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +5¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 46.5JAX at TEN | 39¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −11¢ | – | – |
 ARI winsLA at ARI | 30¢ | 20¢ | +10¢ | 20¢ | – |
 LA winsLA at ARI | 70¢ | 80¢ | −10¢ | 81¢ | – |
| ARI +9.5LA at ARI | 59¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +9¢ | – | – |
| Over 39.5LA at ARI | 67¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +17¢ | – | – |
 LV winsSEA at LV | 32¢ | 28¢ | +4¢less than fee | 28¢ | – |
 SEA winsSEA at LV | 68¢ | 72¢ | −4¢less than fee | 73¢ | – |
| LV +6.5SEA at LV | 52¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +2¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 40.5SEA at LV | 52¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +2¢less than fee | – | – |
 DAL winsSF at DAL | 39¢ | 36¢ | +4¢less than fee | 35¢ | – |
 SF winsSF at DAL | 61¢ | 64¢ | −4¢less than fee | 66¢ | – |
| DAL +3.5SF at DAL | 51¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +1¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 55.5SF at DAL | 41¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −9¢ | – | – |
 CIN winsPIT at CIN | 70¢ | 62¢ | +8¢ | 63¢ | – |
 PIT winsPIT at CIN | 30¢ | 38¢ | −8¢ | 38¢ | – |
| CIN −3.5PIT at CIN | 60¢ | 50¢ (−110) | +10¢ | – | – |
| Over 49.5PIT at CIN | 46¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −4¢less than fee | – | – |
 BAL winsLAC at BAL | 61¢ | 66¢ | −5¢less than fee | 67¢ | – |
 LAC winsLAC at BAL | 39¢ | 34¢ | +5¢less than fee | 34¢ | – |
| BAL −4.5LAC at BAL | 47¢ | 50¢ (−110) | −3¢less than fee | – | – |
| Over 38.5LAC at BAL | 50¢ | 50¢ (−110) | 0¢ | – | – |
Settled this week
Finished games: the sims' price before kickoff, the book's, and how each contract paid out.
 NYG winsFinal: WAS 24, NYG 21 | 52¢ | 53¢ | Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
 WAS winsFinal: WAS 24, NYG 21 | 48¢ | 47¢ | Hit |
| NYG −1.5Final: WAS 24, NYG 21 | 49¢ | 50¢ (−110) | Missed |
| Over 40.5Final: WAS 24, NYG 21 | 56¢ | 50¢ (−110) | Hit |
Book prices are the no-vig moneyline from the schedule snapshot; spreads and totals assume standard −110 pricing (50¢). Kalshi and Polymarket show the price to buy (the ask) when we last checked; a dash means that exchange has no contract at this exact line.
Kalshi charges roughly 7% of expected profit per contract, so a gap smaller than about 7¢ near even money doesn't clear the fee. The model alone hasn't beaten closing prices; treat a gap as a question, not a recommendation.