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Week 10 · updated

NFL, week 10

Every game's chance to win, line and total from 10,000 simulations, next to the betting market and Kalshi.

Who wins, week 10

Tap a game for the full breakdown

NE Patriots5-4Drake Maye41%mkt 43%+3.0mkt +2.5O 51.0mkt 49.543¢–
DET Lions6-2Jared Goff59%mkt 57%−3.0mkt −2.5U 51.0mkt 49.558¢–
QB change
KC Chiefs6-2Patrick Mahomes56%mkt 62%−3.0mkt −3.0O 46.0mkt 47.563¢–
ATL Falcons3-6Michael Penix Jr.44%mkt 38%+3.0mkt +3.0U 46.0mkt 47.538¢–
QB change
HOU Texans3-5C.J. Stroud57%mkt 68%−3.0mkt −4.5O 43.0mkt 40.568¢–
CLE Browns5-4Deshaun Watson43%mkt 32%+3.0mkt +4.5U 43.0mkt 40.532¢–
QB change
MIN Vikings6-2Kirk Cousins35%mkt 42%+5.0mkt +3.0O 43.0mkt 42.542¢–
GB Packers6-3Jordan Love65%mkt 58%−5.0mkt −3.0U 43.0mkt 42.559¢–
MIA Dolphins1-7Malik Willis44%mkt 36%+3.0mkt +3.5O 42.0mkt 38.534¢–
IND Colts2-7Daniel Jones56%mkt 64%−3.0mkt −3.5U 42.0mkt 38.567¢–
CAR Panthers3-5Bryce Young51%mkt 45%−1.0mkt +2.5O 46.0mkt 48.545¢–
NO Saints3-5Tyler Shough49%mkt 55%+1.0mkt −2.5U 46.0mkt 48.556¢–
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen70%mkt 78%−7.0mkt −8.5O 48.0mkt 50.580¢–
NYJ Jets2-7Geno Smith30%mkt 22%+7.0mkt +8.5U 48.0mkt 50.521¢–
JAX Jaguars6-2Trevor Lawrence78%mkt 83%−10.0mkt −10.5O 43.0mkt 46.584¢–
TEN Titans1-7Cam Ward22%mkt 17%+10.0mkt +10.5U 43.0mkt 46.517¢–
LA Rams5-4Matthew Stafford70%mkt 80%−7.0mkt −9.5O 45.0mkt 39.581¢–
ARI Cardinals3-6Gardner Minshew30%mkt 20%+7.0mkt +9.5U 45.0mkt 39.520¢–
QB change
SEA Seahawks5-4Sam Darnold68%mkt 72%−6.0mkt −6.5O 41.0mkt 40.573¢–
LV Raiders4-5Fernando Mendoza32%mkt 28%+6.0mkt +6.5U 41.0mkt 40.528¢–
SF 49ers7-1Brock Purdy61%mkt 64%−3.0mkt −3.5O 53.0mkt 55.566¢–
DAL Cowboys4-5Dak Prescott39%mkt 36%+3.0mkt +3.5U 53.0mkt 55.535¢–
PIT Steelers6-2Aaron Rodgers30%mkt 38%+7.0mkt +3.5O 48.0mkt 49.538¢–
CIN Bengals6-2Joe Burrow70%mkt 62%−7.0mkt −3.5U 48.0mkt 49.563¢–

QB change
LAC Chargers0-8Justin Herbert39%mkt 34%+4.0mkt +4.5O 39.0mkt 38.534¢–
BAL Ravens4-5Tyler Huntley61%mkt 66%−4.0mkt −4.5U 39.0mkt 38.567¢–

Finals

Final ·
  • WAS Commanders3-5-1Jayden Daniels24
  • NYG Giants5-3-1J.J. McCarthy21
Favorite
NYG Lost
Spread
WAS +1.5 Won
Total
Over 40.5 Won

Who to start

All players and search →

Quarterbacks

  1. 1Brock PurdySF at DAL21.5
  2. 2Josh AllenBUF at NYJ20.4
  3. 3Joe BurrowPIT at CIN20.2

Running backs

  1. 1Jahmyr GibbsNE at DET23.2
  2. 2Bijan RobinsonKC at ATL22.7
  3. 3Jonathan TaylorMIA at IND21.8

Wide receivers

  1. 1Puka NacuaLA at ARI25.2
  2. 2CeeDee LambSF at DAL23.3
  3. 3Amon-Ra St. BrownNE at DET19.5

Tight ends

  1. 1Trey McBrideLA at ARI24.6
  2. 2George KittleSF at DAL17.0
  3. 3Tyler WarrenMIA at IND13.7

Kickers

  1. 1Cam LittleJAX at TEN8.9
  2. 2Brandon McManusLA at ARI8.6
  3. 3Evan McPhersonPIT at CIN8.6

Defenses

  1. 1Jaguars D/STJAX at TEN9.7
  2. 2Seahawks D/STSEA at LV8.9
  3. 3Ravens D/STLAC at BAL8.4

Projected fantasy points, PPR. Kickers and defenses use standard scoring. On bye this week: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How good is it? Since 2022 the sim picked the winner in 63% of 1,219 games; the betting favorite, 68%. The full record → · How it works → · Past weeks →