ClosingLine
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College games

Illinois at UCLA

Illinois6-3
25%
#4 UCLA9-0
75%

UCLA wins 7,525 of 10,000 sims. Market: 77%

Line
UCLA −9.0mkt −10.0
Total
50mkt 48.0
UCLA covers
47%
Over 48.0
54%
Median score
20–30

Prices

Price to buy, cents
ContractSimsKalshi
Illinois wins25¢22¢
UCLA wins75¢79¢

10,000 simulated final scores

UCLA covers −10.0 in 47%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market UCLA −10.0← ILL wins by moreUCLA wins by more →
UCLA covers ILL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

College numbers come from a ratings model: team strength and home field set the expected margin and total, then 10,000 final scores are drawn around them. The NFL games are simulated snap by snap instead. Data: CollegeFootballData.com.