ClosingLine
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College games

Northwestern at Ohio State

Northwestern6-3
22%
#21 Ohio State6-3
78%

Ohio State wins 7,771 of 10,000 sims. Market: 80%

Line
OSU −11.0mkt −14.0
Total
50mkt 44.0
OSU covers
40%
Over 44.0
65%
Median score
20–31

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price and Kalshi price for each team to win
ContractSimsKalshi
Northwestern wins22¢18¢
Ohio State wins78¢83¢

10,000 simulated final scores

OSU covers −14.0 in 40%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market OSU −14.0← NU wins by moreOSU wins by more →
OSU covers NU coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

College numbers come from a ratings model: team strength and home field set the expected margin and total, then 10,000 final scores are drawn around them. The NFL games are simulated snap by snap instead. Data: CollegeFootballData.com.