ClosingLine
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College games

USC at Indiana

#15 USC7-2
32%
#6 Indiana8-1
68%

Indiana wins 6,783 of 10,000 sims. Market: 73%

Line
IU −7.0mkt −8.5
Total
53mkt 50.5
IU covers
44%
Over 50.5
56%
Median score
23–30

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price and Kalshi price for each team to win
ContractSimsKalshi
USC wins32¢26¢
Indiana wins68¢75¢

10,000 simulated final scores

IU covers −8.5 in 44%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market IU −8.5← USC wins by moreIU wins by more →
IU covers USC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

College numbers come from a ratings model: team strength and home field set the expected margin and total, then 10,000 final scores are drawn around them. The NFL games are simulated snap by snap instead. Data: CollegeFootballData.com.