ClosingLine
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College games

Wake Forest at SMU

#11 Wake Forest8-1
49%
#25 SMU7-2
51%

SMU wins 5,149 of 10,000 sims. Market: 49%

Line
SMU −1.0mkt −1.0
Total
57mkt 60.5
SMU covers
49%
Over 60.5
42%
Median score
29–29

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price and Kalshi price for each team to win
ContractSimsKalshi
Wake Forest wins49¢49¢
SMU wins51¢52¢

10,000 simulated final scores

SMU covers −1.0 in 49%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market SMU −1.0← WAKE wins by moreSMU wins by more →
SMU covers WAKE coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

College numbers come from a ratings model: team strength and home field set the expected margin and total, then 10,000 final scores are drawn around them. The NFL games are simulated snap by snap instead. Data: CollegeFootballData.com.