Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
LV covers BUF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Allegiant Stadium
BUF at LV
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen
LV Raiders4-5Kirk Cousins
- Line, published
- LV +3.0mkt +5.5
- Total
- 50.0mkt 53.5
- LV covers
- 59%
- Over 53.5
- 41%
- Median score
- 27–24
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to LV's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LV wins. Filled dots are sims where LV covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to LV's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LV wins. Filled dots are sims where LV covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
LV covers +5.5 in 59%
Players
BUF BillsFantasy points, PPR
- Josh Allen QB266 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 35 rush yds21.917–27
- James Cook RB86 rush yds · 22 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.9 TD18.112–23
- Khalil Shakir WR56 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.4 TD12.87–17
- Dalton Kincaid TE43 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.75–13
- Keon Coleman WR41 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.3 TD9.35–13
- Tyler Bass KField goals and extra points8.15–11
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable32 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims7.52–12
- Ty Johnson RB25 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.92–8
Bills D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.12–8- Dawson Knox TE21 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.2 TD5.02–7
- Josh Palmer WRQuestionable15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims3.40–5
LV RaidersFantasy points, PPR
- Ashton Jeanty RB74 rush yds · 47 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.9 TD21.715–28
- Kirk Cousins QB257 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 16 rush yds17.513–22
- Brock Bowers TE59 rec yds · 5.2 catches · 0.4 TD13.48–18
- Tre Tucker WR43 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.3 TD10.35–14
- Michael Mayer TE37 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.3 TD8.64–12
- Matt Gay KField goals and extra points7.64–10
- Cody White WR23 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.22–7
- Mike Washington Jr. RB21 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.62–7
Raiders D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.91–6- Jalen Nailor WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.40–5
- Malik Benson WR13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
- Dylan Laube RB2.00–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BUF | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.113 | +0.005 |
| Rush offense | +0.028 | −0.026 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.039 | +0.021 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.020 | −0.011 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.127 | 0.000 |