ClosingLine
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Week 6 games

· Lincoln Financial Field

CAR at PHI

CAR Panthers3-5Bryce Young
PHI Eagles2-7Tanner McKee
FinalCAR 25 – 14 PHICAR won by 11
Model favorite
CAR Won
Spread lean
PHI +3.0 Lost
Total lean
Over 39.5 Lost

Graded against the numbers published , before kickoff. Everything below is exactly as it was published.

Line, published
PHI +2.0mkt +3.0
Total
42.0mkt 39.5
PHI covers
53%
Over 39.5
58%
Median score
22–20

PHI's listed starter Tanner McKee didn't start last week (J.Hurts did). Check QB status before kickoff.

How the 10,000 sims landed

How to read this chart

The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CAR's biggest win to PHI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.

Dots further right are bigger PHI wins. Filled dots are sims where PHI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CAR covers.

Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.

PHI covers +3.0 in 53%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market PHI +3.0← CAR wins by morePHI wins by more →
PHI covers CAR coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

Players

Scoring
CAR PanthersFantasy points, PPR
PHI EaglesFantasy points, PPR
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
Team ratings in expected points added per play, as of kickoff
EPA per playCARPHI
Pass offense+0.004−0.066
Rush offense−0.014−0.016
Pass defense, allowed−0.001−0.004
Rush defense, allowed−0.0020.000
QB, per dropback−0.005−0.077