Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
GB covers DAL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lambeau Field
DAL at GB
DAL Cowboys4-5Dak Prescott
GB Packers6-3Jordan Love
- Line, published
- GB −6.0mkt +1.5
- Total
- 53.0mkt 53.5
- GB covers
- 71%
- Over 53.5
- 48%
- Median score
- 24–30
The sims give GB 68% to win; the betting market gives 50%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DAL's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DAL's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
GB covers +1.5 in 71%
Players
DAL CowboysFantasy points, PPR
- Dak Prescott QB271 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 17 rush yds18.113–23
- Javonte Williams RB74 rush yds · 28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.8 TD17.511–23
- CeeDee Lamb WR75 rec yds · 6.6 catches · 0.5 TD17.411–22
- George Pickens WR60 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.4 TD13.78–18
- Ryan Flournoy WR38 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.84–12
- Brandon Aubrey KField goals and extra points7.34–10
- Jake Ferguson TE32 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
Cowboys D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed2.90–5- KaVontae Turpin WR11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- Jonathan Mingo WR11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Tyler Goodson RB9 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.10–3
- Brevyn Spann-Ford TE9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
- Emari Demercado RB0.60–1
GB PackersFantasy points, PPR
- Jordan Love QB287 pass yds · 2.3 pass TD · 17 rush yds22.017–27
- Matthew Golden WR80 rec yds · 6.6 catches · 0.6 TD18.612–24
- Christian Watson WR72 rec yds · 6.0 catches · 0.6 TD16.710–22
- MarShawn Lloyd RB54 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.7 TD14.18–19
- Tucker Kraft TE54 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.4 TD12.97–17
- Trey Smack KField goals and extra points8.65–11
- Kaleb Johnson RB39 rush yds · 0.3 TD7.23–10
Packers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.72–8- Bo Melton WR16 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.70–5
- Pierre Strong RB8 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Jonnu Smith TE12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.70–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DAL | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.049 | +0.079 |
| Rush offense | +0.021 | −0.027 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.078 | 0.000 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.014 | +0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.052 | +0.090 |