Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
JAX covers HOU coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Wembley Stadium
HOU at JAX
HOU Texans3-5C.J. Stroud
JAX Jaguars6-2Trevor Lawrence
- Line, published
- JAX −5.0mkt −2.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 42.5
- JAX covers
- 62%
- Over 42.5
- 52%
- Median score
- 19–24
The sims give JAX 67% to win; the betting market gives 56%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to JAX's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger JAX wins. Filled dots are sims where JAX covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to JAX's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger JAX wins. Filled dots are sims where JAX covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
JAX covers −2.5 in 62%
Players
HOU TexansFantasy points, PPR
- C.J. Stroud QB241 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 25 rush yds15.611–20
- Woody Marks RB64 rush yds · 21 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.5 TD13.88–18
- Xavier Hutchinson WR49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.57–15
- Dalton Schultz TE46 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.3 TD10.56–14
- Nico Collins WR41 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.55–13
- Jaylin Noel WR6 rush yds · 28 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.2 TD7.33–10
- Ka'imi Fairbairn KField goals and extra points7.04–10
- Kayshon Boutte WR30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD6.83–9
Texans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.22–8- Foster Moreau TE20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
JAX JaguarsFantasy points, PPR
- Trevor Lawrence QB245 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 20 rush yds17.213–21
- Bhayshul Tuten RB73 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.7 TD15.09–19
- Parker Washington WR62 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.4 TD14.29–19
- Brenton Strange TE49 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD11.46–15
- Cam Little KField goals and extra points8.45–11
Jaguars D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.04–11- Jakobi Meyers WR33 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.64–11
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR29 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.2 TD6.73–9
- Josh Cameron WR24 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.42–8
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB23 rush yds · 0.2 TD3.41–4
- Nate Boerkircher TE12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.70–4
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RB10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.20–3
- Ameer Abdullah RB7 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.10–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | HOU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.014 | +0.048 |
| Rush offense | −0.026 | +0.002 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.015 | −0.021 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.030 | −0.013 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.012 | +0.048 |