Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
KC covers LAC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
LAC at KC
LAC Chargers0-8Justin Herbert
KC Chiefs6-2Patrick Mahomes
- Line, published
- KC −7.0mkt −7.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 41.5
- KC covers
- 48%
- Over 41.5
- 56%
- Median score
- 17–25
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LAC's biggest win to KC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger KC wins. Filled dots are sims where KC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LAC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LAC's biggest win to KC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger KC wins. Filled dots are sims where KC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LAC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
KC covers −7.5 in 48%
Players
LAC ChargersFantasy points, PPR
- Justin Herbert QB223 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 21 rush yds13.89–18
- Keaton Mitchell RB23 rush yds · 36 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.4 TD11.47–15
- Omarion Hampton RB50 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.4 TD10.06–14
- Quentin Johnston WR39 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Oronde Gadsden II TE37 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.64–12
- Ladd McConkey WR34 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD7.74–11
- Cameron Dicker KField goals and extra points6.73–9
- Kimani Vidal RB11 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.2 TD6.23–9
Chargers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.92–7- Charlie Kolar TE18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.10–4
KC ChiefsFantasy points, PPR
- Kenneth Walker III RB100 rush yds · 51 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 1.1 TD26.519–33
- Patrick Mahomes QB243 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 15 rush yds16.312–21
- Xavier Worthy WR63 rec yds · 5.6 catches · 0.4 TD14.59–19
- Travis Kelce TE62 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.4 TD14.19–19
- Harrison Butker KField goals and extra points8.55–11
Chiefs D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.34–11- Emmett Johnson RB17 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Noah Gray TE25 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.62–8
- Jalen Royals WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.50–5
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | LAC | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.057 | +0.054 |
| Rush offense | −0.019 | +0.024 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.030 | +0.006 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.003 | −0.013 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.056 | +0.067 |