Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
TB covers PIT coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Raymond James Stadium
PIT at TB
PIT Steelers6-2Aaron Rodgers
TB Buccaneers3-6Jalon Daniels
- Line, published
- TB −2.0mkt +1.5
- Total
- 42.0mkt 38.5
- TB covers
- 56%
- Over 38.5
- 61%
- Median score
- 20–21
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to TB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TB wins. Filled dots are sims where TB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to TB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TB wins. Filled dots are sims where TB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
TB covers +1.5 in 56%
Players
PIT SteelersFantasy points, PPR
- Jaylen Warren RB74 rush yds · 49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.8 TD21.615–27
- DK Metcalf WR67 rec yds · 6.3 catches · 0.4 TD15.410–20
- Aaron Rodgers QB235 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.09–18
- Pat Freiermuth TEQuestionable39 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.23–14
- Germie Bernard WR40 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.15–12
- Chris Boswell KField goals and extra points7.54–10
Steelers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.13–10- Darnell Washington TE31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
- Rico Dowdle RBQuestionable10 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims3.31–5
- Travis Homer RB5 rush yds0.70–1
TB BuccaneersFantasy points, PPR
- Bucky Irving RB81 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.7 TD17.611–23
- Jalon Daniels QB226 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.010–18
- Emeka Egbuka WR53 rec yds · 4.9 catches · 0.3 TD12.47–16
- Cade Otton TE42 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.2 TD9.75–13
- Kenny Gainwell RB17 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.44–12
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD8.04–11
- Chase McLaughlin KField goals and extra points7.85–11
Buccaneers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.84–11- Ted Hurst III WR23 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.1 TD5.32–7
- Tez Johnson WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.51–5
- Sean Tucker RBQuestionable7 rush yds · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims1.10–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | PIT | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.026 | −0.069 |
| Rush offense | +0.012 | +0.006 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.005 | −0.019 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.002 | −0.006 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.031 | −0.080 |