Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
IND covers TEN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lucas Oil Stadium
TEN at IND
TEN Titans1-7Cam Ward
IND Colts2-7Daniel Jones
- Line, published
- IND −7.0mkt −6.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 43.5
- IND covers
- 54%
- Over 43.5
- 48%
- Median score
- 17–25
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TEN's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TEN's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
IND covers −6.5 in 54%
Players
TEN TitansFantasy points, PPR
- Tony Pollard RB76 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.6 TD14.89–19
- Carnell Tate WR56 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.3 TD12.78–17
- Cam Ward QB211 pass yds · 1.1 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.08–16
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR46 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.2 TD10.66–14
- Joey Slye KField goals and extra points6.63–9
- Tyjae Spears RBQuestionable13 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims6.42–9
Titans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.32–8- Gunnar Helm TE18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
- Elic Ayomanor WR17 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD3.91–6
- Calvin Ridley WR13 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- Chimere Dike WR12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Daniel Bellinger TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- Nicholas Singleton RB7 rush yds1.00–1
IND ColtsFantasy points, PPR
- Jonathan Taylor RB104 rush yds · 29 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 1.1 TD22.315–28
- Daniel Jones QB223 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 24 rush yds15.811–20
- Josh Downs WR52 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD11.97–16
- Keenan Allen WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
- Tyler Warren TEQuestionable42 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims10.13–15
Colts D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.95–12- Spencer Shrader KField goals and extra points8.55–11
- Laquon Treadwell WR32 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.43–11
- Seth McGowan RB19 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.41–6
- Deion Burks WR7 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | TEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.102 | −0.062 |
| Rush offense | +0.005 | +0.049 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.043 | +0.005 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.012 | +0.012 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.117 | −0.065 |