Week 6 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
SF covers WAS coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Levi's Stadium
WAS at SF
WAS Commanders3-5-1Jayden Daniels
SF 49ers7-1Brock Purdy
- Line, published
- SF −8.0mkt −7.5
- Total
- 49.0mkt 52.5
- SF covers
- 50%
- Over 52.5
- 40%
- Median score
- 20–29
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from WAS's biggest win to SF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger SF wins. Filled dots are sims where SF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where WAS covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from WAS's biggest win to SF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger SF wins. Filled dots are sims where SF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where WAS covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
SF covers −7.5 in 50%
Players
WAS CommandersFantasy points, PPR
- Jayden Daniels QB247 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 24 rush yds16.612–21
- Rachaad White RB61 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.5 TD12.77–17
- Terry McLaurin WR47 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–14
- Antonio Williams WR42 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.2 TD9.65–13
- Stefon Diggs WRQuestionable41 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.33–14
- Drew Stevens KField goals and extra points6.84–9
- Dyami Brown WR28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.33–9
- Chig Okonkwo TE27 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.2 TD6.13–9
- Treylon Burks WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.42–8
- Austin Ekeler RB18 rush yds · 0.1 TD4.11–6
Commanders D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.10–5- John Bates TE8 rec yds · 0.8 catches1.80–3
SF 49ersFantasy points, PPR
- Christian McCaffrey RB66 rush yds · 63 rec yds · 5.3 catches · 1.1 TD24.617–31
- Brock Purdy QB271 pass yds · 2.1 pass TD · 24 rush yds21.216–26
- George Kittle TE76 rec yds · 6.4 catches · 0.6 TD17.411–23
- Mike Evans WRQuestionable69 rec yds · 5.8 catches · 0.5 TD · plays in 80% of sims15.97–23
- Eddy Pineiro KField goals and extra points8.76–11
49ers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.13–10- Kaelon Black RB37 rush yds · 0.3 TD6.73–10
- Kyle Juszczyk FB16 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.70–5
- Jacob Cowing WR15 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.60–5
- Luke Farrell TE10 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.30–3
- Brandin Cooks WR10 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.20–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | WAS | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.003 | +0.095 |
| Rush offense | −0.009 | +0.005 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.041 | +0.002 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.006 | −0.015 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.006 | +0.106 |