Week 7 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ARI covers DEN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· State Farm Stadium
DEN at ARI
DEN Broncos7-2Bo Nix
ARI Cardinals3-6Jacoby Brissett
- Line, published
- ARI +3.0mkt +4.5
- Total
- 44.0mkt 43.5
- ARI covers
- 55%
- Over 43.5
- 51%
- Median score
- 23–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DEN's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DEN's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ARI covers +4.5 in 55%
Players
DEN BroncosFantasy points, PPR
- Bo Nix QB240 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 26 rush yds17.212–21
- J.K. Dobbins RB72 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.7 TD14.39–19
- Jaylen Waddle WR61 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.4 TD14.39–19
- RJ Harvey RB19 rush yds · 43 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.4 TD12.57–17
- Courtland Sutton WR43 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD9.95–14
- Wil Lutz KField goals and extra points8.15–11
Broncos D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.44–11- Evan Engram TE30 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD6.93–10
- Marvin Mims Jr. WR18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.11–6
- Troy Franklin WR11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Jonah Coleman RBQuestionable5 rush yds · plays in 80% of sims0.80–1
ARI CardinalsFantasy points, PPR
- Trey McBride TE71 rec yds · 6.7 catches · 0.4 TD16.311–21
- Jacoby Brissett QB229 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 28 rush yds16.011–21
- Michael Wilson WR65 rec yds · 6.1 catches · 0.4 TD14.89–19
- Tyler Allgeier RB65 rush yds · 16 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.6 TD12.97–17
- Kendrick Bourne WR35 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD7.94–11
- Chad Ryland KField goals and extra points7.34–10
Cardinals D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.82–8- Bam Knight RB28 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.62–6
- Jalen Brooks WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Elijah Higgins TE14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–5
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DEN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.012 | −0.024 |
| Rush offense | +0.009 | +0.003 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.045 | +0.046 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.005 | 0.000 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.010 | −0.029 |