Week 7 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
DET covers GB coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Ford Field
GB at DET
GB Packers6-3Jordan Love
DET Lions6-2Jared Goff
- Line, published
- DET −2.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 51.0mkt 55.5
- DET covers
- 42%
- Over 55.5
- 36%
- Median score
- 24–26
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from GB's biggest win to DET's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DET wins. Filled dots are sims where DET covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where GB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from GB's biggest win to DET's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DET wins. Filled dots are sims where DET covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where GB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
DET covers −3.5 in 42%
Players
GB PackersFantasy points, PPR
- Jordan Love QB278 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 21 rush yds19.915–25
- Matthew Golden WR83 rec yds · 7.2 catches · 0.6 TD18.913–24
- Christian Watson WR67 rec yds · 5.8 catches · 0.5 TD15.39–20
- Tucker Kraft TE55 rec yds · 4.7 catches · 0.4 TD12.77–17
- MarShawn Lloyd RB41 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.5 TD10.76–14
- Trey Smack KField goals and extra points7.85–10
- Pierre Strong RB18 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.3 TD6.93–10
Packers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.51–7- Kaleb Johnson RB24 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.52–6
- Bo Melton WRQuestionable9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims2.10–3
DET LionsFantasy points, PPR
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB95 rush yds · 48 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 1.1 TD25.418–32
- Jared Goff QB266 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 16 rush yds18.814–23
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR79 rec yds · 6.9 catches · 0.6 TD18.112–23
- Sam LaPorta TE53 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.4 TD12.07–16
- Jameson Williams WR40 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.3 TD9.35–13
- Jake Bates KField goals and extra points8.05–11
- Isaac TeSlaa WR28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.53–9
Lions D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.92–7- Sione Vaki RB15 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.81–5
- Brock Wright TE9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | GB | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.067 | +0.089 |
| Rush offense | −0.026 | +0.007 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.025 | +0.039 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.010 | +0.006 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.079 | +0.104 |