Week 7 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NO covers PIT coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Stade de France
PIT at NO
PIT Steelers6-2Aaron Rodgers
NO Saints3-5Tyler Shough
- Line, published
- NO 0.0mkt +3.0
- Total
- 43.0mkt 42.5
- NO covers
- 57%
- Over 42.5
- 53%
- Median score
- 21–21
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NO covers +3.0 in 57%
Players
PIT SteelersFantasy points, PPR
- Jaylen Warren RB79 rush yds · 40 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.8 TD20.614–26
- DK Metcalf WR70 rec yds · 6.5 catches · 0.4 TD16.110–21
- Aaron Rodgers QB238 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.510–19
- Germie Bernard WR48 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD10.96–15
- Pat Freiermuth TE38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Chris Boswell KField goals and extra points7.74–10
- Darnell Washington TE32 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
Steelers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.83–10- Rico Dowdle RBQuestionable15 rush yds · 11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims4.61–7
NO SaintsFantasy points, PPR
- Tyler Shough QB231 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 24 rush yds15.611–20
- Chris Olave WR66 rec yds · 6.1 catches · 0.4 TD15.09–20
- Devaughn Vele WR47 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–14
- Alvin Kamara RB33 rush yds · 23 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.4 TD10.15–14
- Kendre Miller RB49 rush yds · 10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.4 TD9.35–13
- Juwan Johnson TE37 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.2 TD8.44–12
- Daniel Carlson KField goals and extra points7.64–10
Saints D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.13–10- Bryce Lance WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.32–8
- CJ Donaldson RB17 rush yds · 0.1 TD4.01–5
- Noah Fant TE13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | PIT | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.043 | −0.040 |
| Rush offense | +0.020 | −0.004 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.007 | +0.013 |
| Rush defense, allowed | 0.000 | +0.020 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.048 | −0.046 |