Week 7 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ATL covers SF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
SF at ATL
SF 49ers7-1Brock Purdy
ATL Falcons3-6Michael Penix Jr.
- Line, published
- ATL +3.0mkt +2.5
- Total
- 46.0mkt 49.5
- ATL covers
- 48%
- Over 49.5
- 40%
- Median score
- 24–22
ATL's listed starter Michael Penix Jr. didn't start last week (M.Penix did). Check QB status before kickoff.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SF's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SF's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ATL covers +2.5 in 48%
Players
SF 49ersFantasy points, PPR
- Christian McCaffrey RB59 rush yds · 89 rec yds · 7.8 catches · 1.1 TD29.021–36
- George Kittle TE92 rec yds · 8.2 catches · 0.6 TD21.014–27
- Brock Purdy QB256 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 24 rush yds18.414–23
- Eddy Pineiro KField goals and extra points8.05–11
- Kaelon Black RB32 rush yds · 0.2 TD6.43–9
49ers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.33–9- Kyle Juszczyk FB21 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.72–7
- Brandin Cooks WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.50–5
- Jacob Cowing WR13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–5
- Luke Farrell TE9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
- Jordan Watkins WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD1.80–3
ATL FalconsFantasy points, PPR
- Bijan Robinson RB115 rush yds · 37 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 1.1 TD25.017–31
- Drake London WR73 rec yds · 6.6 catches · 0.5 TD16.811–22
- Michael Penix Jr. QB230 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.510–19
- Kyle Pitts TE36 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.2 TD8.24–11
- Jahan Dotson WR33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.54–11
- Nick Folk KField goals and extra points7.54–10
Falcons D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.32–8- Zachariah Branch WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- Olamide Zaccheaus WRQuestionable13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims3.00–4
- Austin Hooper TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | SF | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.087 | −0.024 |
| Rush offense | +0.018 | +0.019 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.002 | −0.021 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.015 | −0.010 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.098 | −0.019 |