Week 8 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
TB covers ATL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Raymond James Stadium
ATL at TB
ATL Falcons3-6Michael Penix Jr.
TB Buccaneers3-6Baker Mayfield
- Line, published
- TB −3.0mkt −2.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 43.5
- TB covers
- 54%
- Over 43.5
- 42%
- Median score
- 19–22
ATL's listed starter Michael Penix Jr. didn't start last week (M.Penix did). Check QB status before kickoff.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from ATL's biggest win to TB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TB wins. Filled dots are sims where TB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where ATL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from ATL's biggest win to TB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TB wins. Filled dots are sims where TB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where ATL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
TB covers −2.5 in 54%
Players
ATL FalconsFantasy points, PPR
- Bijan Robinson RB100 rush yds · 30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.8 TD20.814–26
- Drake London WR70 rec yds · 6.6 catches · 0.4 TD16.010–21
- Michael Penix Jr. QB214 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.58–16
- Kyle Pitts TE35 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.2 TD8.14–11
- Nick Folk KField goals and extra points7.24–10
Falcons D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.53–9- Jahan Dotson WR29 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.1 TD6.43–9
- Zachariah Branch WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Austin Hooper TE11 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Olamide Zaccheaus WRQuestionable9 rec yds · 0.9 catches · plays in 80% of sims2.10–3
- Khalil Herbert RB0.4
TB BuccaneersFantasy points, PPR
- Bucky Irving RB85 rush yds · 28 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.8 TD18.612–24
- Baker Mayfield QB219 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 14 rush yds13.79–18
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR58 rec yds · 5.3 catches · 0.3 TD13.28–17
- Cade Otton TE41 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.55–13
- Chase McLaughlin KField goals and extra points7.95–11
Buccaneers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.94–11- Ted Hurst III WR34 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD7.84–11
- Kenny Gainwell RBQuestionable18 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims7.33–11
- Tez Johnson WR25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.92–8
- Sean Tucker RB13 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.90–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.014 | −0.016 |
| Rush offense | +0.020 | +0.015 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.032 | −0.047 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.005 | −0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.008 | −0.008 |