Week 8 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
BUF covers BAL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Highmark Stadium
BAL at BUF
BAL Ravens4-5Lamar Jackson
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen
- Line, published
- BUF −4.0mkt −3.0
- Total
- 52.0mkt 54.5
- BUF covers
- 54%
- Over 54.5
- 43%
- Median score
- 24–27
BAL's listed starter Lamar Jackson didn't start last week (T.Huntley did). Check QB status before kickoff.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BAL's biggest win to BUF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BUF wins. Filled dots are sims where BUF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BAL's biggest win to BUF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BUF wins. Filled dots are sims where BUF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
BUF covers −3.0 in 54%
Players
BAL RavensFantasy points, PPR
- Lamar Jackson QB261 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 16 rush yds18.313–23
- Zay Flowers WR78 rec yds · 6.7 catches · 0.5 TD18.112–23
- Derrick Henry RB82 rush yds · 16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.8 TD15.810–20
- Mark Andrews TE45 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD10.25–14
- Rashod Bateman WR35 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD8.04–11
- Justice Hill RB10 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.3 TD7.54–11
- Tyler Loop KField goals and extra points7.44–10
- Josh Cuevas TE19 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.42–6
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR19 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.42–6
Ravens D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.31–5- Devontez Walker WR13 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
- Tyler Huntley QB0.70–1
BUF BillsFantasy points, PPR
- Josh Allen QB269 pass yds · 2.0 pass TD · 33 rush yds22.117–27
- James Cook RB95 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 1.0 TD20.213–26
- Khalil Shakir WR59 rec yds · 4.9 catches · 0.4 TD13.48–18
- Keon Coleman WR46 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.4 TD10.66–15
- Dalton Kincaid TEQuestionable39 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.03–14
- Tyler Bass KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Ty Johnson RB24 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.82–8
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable24 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims5.71–9
Bills D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.92–7- Josh Palmer WR20 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
- Dawson Knox TE19 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.41–6
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.049 | +0.102 |
| Rush offense | −0.002 | +0.026 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.017 | +0.043 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.005 | +0.017 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.057 | +0.115 |