Week 8 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
DEN covers KC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Empower Field at Mile High
KC at DEN
KC Chiefs6-2Patrick Mahomes
DEN Broncos7-2Bo Nix
- Line, published
- DEN −2.0mkt +1.5
- Total
- 46.0mkt 41.5
- DEN covers
- 55%
- Over 41.5
- 62%
- Median score
- 22–23
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from KC's biggest win to DEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DEN wins. Filled dots are sims where DEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where KC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from KC's biggest win to DEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DEN wins. Filled dots are sims where DEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where KC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
DEN covers +1.5 in 55%
Players
KC ChiefsFantasy points, PPR
- Kenneth Walker III RB87 rush yds · 39 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.9 TD21.615–27
- Patrick Mahomes QB246 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 16 rush yds15.711–20
- Xavier Worthy WR53 rec yds · 4.9 catches · 0.3 TD12.27–16
- Travis Kelce TE52 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD12.07–16
- Harrison Butker KField goals and extra points7.64–10
Chiefs D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.92–9- Emmett Johnson RB12 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.2 TD5.82–8
- Noah Gray TE23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.22–7
- Rashee Rice WR22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD5.02–7
- Jalen Royals WR18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.22–6
- Cyrus Allen WR10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- Andrew Armstrong WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
DEN BroncosFantasy points, PPR
- Bo Nix QB242 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 29 rush yds17.613–22
- J.K. Dobbins RB76 rush yds · 19 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.7 TD15.49–20
- Jaylen Waddle WRQuestionable60 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.4 TD · plays in 80% of sims14.06–21
- Courtland Sutton WR55 rec yds · 5.0 catches · 0.4 TD12.87–17
- Evan Engram TE36 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD8.24–11
- Wil Lutz KField goals and extra points7.85–11
Broncos D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.53–9- Marvin Mims Jr. WR25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.2 TD6.02–9
- Jonah Coleman RB18 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD4.82–7
- Troy Franklin WR17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.81–5
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.052 | −0.010 |
| Rush offense | +0.026 | +0.010 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.011 | −0.047 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.006 | +0.002 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.065 | −0.008 |