Week 8 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
MIA covers NE coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Hard Rock Stadium
NE at MIA
NE Patriots5-4Drake Maye
MIA Dolphins1-7Malik Willis
- Line, published
- MIA +5.0mkt +7.0
- Total
- 45.0mkt 41.5
- MIA covers
- 57%
- Over 41.5
- 61%
- Median score
- 25–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NE's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NE's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
MIA covers +7.0 in 57%
Players
NE PatriotsFantasy points, PPR
- Drake Maye QB261 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 20 rush yds18.814–23
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB47 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.6 TD14.59–19
- Hunter Henry TE54 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.4 TD12.27–16
- DeMario Douglas WR52 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.4 TD11.97–16
- Andy Borregales KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Eli Raridon TE31 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
Patriots D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.93–10- TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionable26 rush yds · 11 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims6.52–10
- A.J. Brown WRQuestionable28 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims6.51–10
- Efton Chism III WR28 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.2 TD6.43–9
- Kyle Williams WR21 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.72–7
- Corey Kiner RB24 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.42–6
MIA DolphinsFantasy points, PPR
- Malik Washington WR8 rush yds · 63 rec yds · 5.8 catches · 0.4 TD15.310–20
- Malik Willis QB220 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 25 rush yds14.910–19
- Ollie Gordon II RB75 rush yds · 15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.6 TD14.18–19
- Greg Dulcich TE38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.64–12
- Chris Bell WR33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.64–11
- Kevin Coleman Jr. WR32 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.33–10
- Zane Gonzalez KField goals and extra points7.04–10
Dolphins D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.41–7- Caleb Douglas WR18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.21–6
- Jaylen Wright RB21 rush yds · 0.2 TD3.51–5
- Will Kacmarek TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.30–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.065 | −0.026 |
| Rush offense | −0.018 | +0.009 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.022 | +0.043 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.001 | +0.005 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.073 | −0.029 |