Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
MIN covers BUF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· U.S. Bank Stadium
BUF at MIN
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen
MIN Vikings6-2Kyler Murray
- Line, published
- MIN +1.0mkt +3.5
- Total
- 45.0mkt 45.5
- MIN covers
- 59%
- Over 45.5
- 48%
- Median score
- 23–23
The sims give BUF 50% to win; the betting market gives 64%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to MIN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIN wins. Filled dots are sims where MIN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to MIN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIN wins. Filled dots are sims where MIN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
MIN covers +3.5 in 59%
Players
BUF BillsFantasy points, PPR
- Josh Allen QB242 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 29 rush yds17.613–22
- James Cook RB78 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.7 TD16.010–21
- Khalil Shakir WR50 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD11.46–15
- Dalton Kincaid TE45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
- Keon Coleman WR40 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Tyler Bass KField goals and extra points7.84–11
- DJ Moore WR30 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
- Ty Johnson RB25 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD6.33–9
Bills D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.13–9- Dawson Knox TE17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
- Ray Davis RB8 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.30–3
MIN VikingsFantasy points, PPR
- Aaron Jones RB75 rush yds · 32 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.8 TD18.212–23
- Kyler Murray QB242 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.611–20
- Justin Jefferson WR55 rec yds · 5.0 catches · 0.3 TD12.87–17
- T.J. Hockenson TE53 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD12.07–16
- Jordan Addison WR50 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD11.77–16
- Will Reichard KField goals and extra points7.74–10
Vikings D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.03–9- Jordan Mason RB24 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.42–6
- Gavin Bartholomew TE14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.30–5
- Tai Felton WR11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Myles Price WR12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BUF | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.090 | −0.026 |
| Rush offense | +0.029 | −0.023 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.020 | −0.067 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.013 | −0.011 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.103 | −0.027 |