Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
IND covers DAL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lucas Oil Stadium
DAL at IND
DAL Cowboys4-5Dak Prescott
IND Colts2-7Daniel Jones
- Line, published
- IND +3.0mkt +4.5
- Total
- 48.0mkt 51.5
- IND covers
- 58%
- Over 51.5
- 39%
- Median score
- 24–23
The sims give DAL 55% to win; the betting market gives 67%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DAL's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DAL's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
IND covers +4.5 in 58%
Players
DAL CowboysFantasy points, PPR
- CeeDee Lamb WR95 rec yds · 8.3 catches · 0.6 TD21.715–28
- Dak Prescott QB260 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 16 rush yds18.213–23
- Javonte Williams RB78 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.7 TD15.59–20
- George Pickens WRQuestionable44 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims10.13–15
- Ryan Flournoy WR41 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.55–13
- Brandon Aubrey KField goals and extra points8.05–11
Cowboys D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.82–8- Tyler Goodson RB21 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD5.22–7
- Brevyn Spann-Ford TE22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.12–7
- Jake Ferguson TEQuestionable16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims3.80–6
IND ColtsFantasy points, PPR
- Jonathan Taylor RB80 rush yds · 29 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.8 TD18.512–24
- Daniel Jones QB233 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 23 rush yds16.211–20
- Keenan Allen WR49 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD11.26–15
- Josh Downs WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.25–14
- Tyler Warren TE40 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.45–13
- Spencer Shrader KField goals and extra points7.64–10
- Laquon Treadwell WR29 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.2 TD6.63–9
- Seth McGowan RB29 rush yds · 0.2 TD5.32–8
Colts D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.02–7- Will Mallory TE12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.80–4
- Deion Burks WR10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.30–3
- Mo Alie-Cox TE8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
- DJ Giddens RB6 rush yds · 0.1 TD0.90–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DAL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.056 | −0.078 |
| Rush offense | +0.014 | +0.025 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.062 | +0.013 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.027 | +0.014 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.060 | −0.080 |