Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
MIA covers DET coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Hard Rock Stadium
DET at MIA
DET Lions6-2Jared Goff
MIA Dolphins1-7Malik Willis
- Line, published
- MIA +4.0mkt +6.5
- Total
- 48.0mkt 50.5
- MIA covers
- 57%
- Over 50.5
- 44%
- Median score
- 27–22
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DET's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DET covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DET's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DET covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
MIA covers +6.5 in 57%
Players
DET LionsFantasy points, PPR
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB92 rush yds · 54 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 1.2 TD26.018–33
- Jared Goff QB262 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 16 rush yds19.114–24
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WRQuestionable64 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.5 TD · plays in 80% of sims14.97–22
- Jameson Williams WR53 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.4 TD12.17–16
- Sam LaPorta TE49 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.4 TD11.46–16
- Jake Bates KField goals and extra points8.25–11
- Isaac TeSlaa WR25 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.82–8
Lions D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.72–8- Sione Vaki RBQuestionable15 rush yds · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims3.51–5
MIA DolphinsFantasy points, PPR
- Malik Willis QB235 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 24 rush yds16.612–21
- Ollie Gordon II RB83 rush yds · 15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.7 TD15.49–20
- Malik Washington WR7 rush yds · 60 rec yds · 5.3 catches · 0.4 TD14.59–19
- Greg Dulcich TE45 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.25–14
- Chris Bell WR37 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.2 TD8.74–12
- Kevin Coleman Jr. WR33 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.43–10
- MIA kicker KField goals and extra points7.24–10
- Caleb Douglas WR22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD5.12–7
Dolphins D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.91–6- Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable14 rush yds · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims2.80–4
- Will Kacmarek TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.30–3
- Jalen Tolbert WR7 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DET | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.098 | −0.025 |
| Rush offense | +0.004 | +0.001 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.035 | +0.036 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.003 | +0.013 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.114 | −0.028 |