Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
LAC covers HOU coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· SoFi Stadium
HOU at LAC
HOU Texans3-5C.J. Stroud
LAC Chargers0-8Justin Herbert
- Line, published
- LAC +2.0mkt +5.5
- Total
- 40.0mkt 40.5
- LAC covers
- 63%
- Over 40.5
- 48%
- Median score
- 20–20
The sims give HOU 53% to win; the betting market gives 67%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to LAC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LAC wins. Filled dots are sims where LAC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to LAC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LAC wins. Filled dots are sims where LAC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
LAC covers +5.5 in 63%
Players
HOU TexansFantasy points, PPR
- Woody Marks RB79 rush yds · 22 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.7 TD16.310–21
- C.J. Stroud QB231 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 23 rush yds15.111–19
- Xavier Hutchinson WR48 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD11.47–15
- Dalton Schultz TE49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.26–15
- Nico Collins WR41 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.55–13
Texans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.84–11- Ka'imi Fairbairn KField goals and extra points7.64–10
- Kayshon Boutte WR30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD6.83–9
- Foster Moreau TE17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.81–5
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.50–5
- Cade Stover TE1.30–2
LAC ChargersFantasy points, PPR
- Justin Herbert QB214 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 22 rush yds13.49–17
- Omarion Hampton RB51 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.4 TD11.26–15
- Keaton Mitchell RB24 rush yds · 24 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.3 TD8.85–12
- Kimani Vidal RB24 rush yds · 19 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.3 TD7.74–11
- Oronde Gadsden II TE33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.44–10
- Cameron Dicker KField goals and extra points7.44–10
Chargers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.44–11- Tre Harris WR27 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.1 TD6.13–9
- Quentin Johnston WR25 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.1 TD5.82–8
- Charlie Kolar TE25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.62–8
- Ladd McConkey WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.12–7
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–5
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | HOU | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.007 | −0.080 |
| Rush offense | −0.018 | −0.031 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.006 | −0.037 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.003 | +0.001 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.007 | −0.081 |