Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
BAL covers JAX coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· M&T Bank Stadium
JAX at BAL
JAX Jaguars6-2Trevor Lawrence
BAL Ravens4-5Joe Fagnano
- Line, published
- BAL +6.0mkt +10.0
- Total
- 43.0mkt 39.5
- BAL covers
- 64%
- Over 39.5
- 60%
- Median score
- 24–18
BAL's listed starter Joe Fagnano didn't start last week (L.Jackson did). Check QB status before kickoff.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from JAX's biggest win to BAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BAL wins. Filled dots are sims where BAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where JAX covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from JAX's biggest win to BAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BAL wins. Filled dots are sims where BAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where JAX covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
BAL covers +10.0 in 64%
Players
JAX JaguarsFantasy points, PPR
- Trevor Lawrence QB238 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 15 rush yds16.612–21
- Parker Washington WR57 rec yds · 5.1 catches · 0.4 TD13.48–18
- Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionable55 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.5 TD · plays in 80% of sims12.16–17
- Brenton Strange TE46 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.66–14
- Jakobi Meyers WR43 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.3 TD9.75–13
Jaguars D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.54–12- Cam Little KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB38 rush yds · 0.3 TD6.73–10
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR23 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.32–8
- Josh Cameron WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- Nate Boerkircher TE12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.70–4
- Travis Hunter CB10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RB8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD1.80–3
- Ameer Abdullah RB12 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.80–2
BAL RavensFantasy points, PPR
- Zay Flowers WR66 rec yds · 6.3 catches · 0.3 TD15.210–20
- Derrick Henry RB81 rush yds · 13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.6 TD14.39–19
- Joe Fagnano QB218 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.58–17
- Justice Hill RB11 rush yds · 31 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD8.75–12
- Mark Andrews TE34 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.2 TD7.84–11
- BAL kicker KField goals and extra points6.84–9
- Rashod Bateman WR24 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
Ravens D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.22–8- Josh Cuevas TE18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.11–6
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR16 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Devontez Walker WR8 rec yds · 0.8 catches1.80–3
- Rasheen Ali RB5 rush yds0.80–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.046 | −0.079 |
| Rush offense | +0.013 | −0.006 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.024 | +0.008 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.015 | −0.005 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.048 | −0.103 |