Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
SF covers LV coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Levi's Stadium
LV at SF
LV Raiders4-5Kirk Cousins
SF 49ers7-1Brock Purdy
- Line, published
- SF −7.0mkt −8.5
- Total
- 49.0mkt 51.5
- SF covers
- 44%
- Over 51.5
- 43%
- Median score
- 21–28
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LV's biggest win to SF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger SF wins. Filled dots are sims where SF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LV covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LV's biggest win to SF's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger SF wins. Filled dots are sims where SF covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LV covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
SF covers −8.5 in 44%
Players
LV RaidersFantasy points, PPR
- Kirk Cousins QB262 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 17 rush yds17.312–22
- Brock Bowers TE72 rec yds · 6.5 catches · 0.4 TD16.410–21
- Ashton Jeanty RB35 rush yds · 43 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.5 TD14.79–19
- Tre Tucker WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.46–14
- Michael Mayer TE40 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Matt Gay KField goals and extra points7.04–10
- Mike Washington Jr. RB38 rush yds · 0.3 TD6.83–10
- Jalen Nailor WR21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
- Cody White WR18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.11–6
Raiders D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.30–6
SF 49ersFantasy points, PPR
- Christian McCaffrey RB67 rush yds · 72 rec yds · 6.1 catches · 1.2 TD26.919–33
- Brock Purdy QB265 pass yds · 2.0 pass TD · 25 rush yds20.616–25
- George Kittle TE87 rec yds · 7.4 catches · 0.6 TD19.913–25
- Kaelon Black RB41 rush yds · 12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.5 TD9.14–13
- Eddy Pineiro KField goals and extra points8.76–11
49ers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.63–10- Jacob Cowing WR23 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.2 TD5.52–8
- Kyle Juszczyk FB23 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.2 TD5.22–8
- Jordan Watkins WR21 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.2 TD4.92–7
- Brandin Cooks WR19 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.41–6
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | LV | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.024 | +0.085 |
| Rush offense | −0.034 | +0.022 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.025 | +0.016 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.008 | −0.023 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.020 | +0.097 |