ClosingLine
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Week 9 games

· Lincoln Financial Field

NYG at PHI

NYG Giants5-3-1J.J. McCarthy
PHI Eagles2-7Joe Milton III
FinalNYG 19 – 11 PHINYG won by 8
Model favorite
PHI Lost
Spread lean
PHI +3.0 Lost
Total lean
Over 38.5 Lost

Graded against the numbers published , before kickoff. Everything below is exactly as it was published.

Line, published
PHI 0.0mkt +3.0
Total
41.0mkt 38.5
PHI covers
57%
Over 38.5
59%
Median score
20–20

PHI's listed starter Joe Milton III didn't start last week (T.McKee did). Check QB status before kickoff.

How the 10,000 sims landed

How to read this chart

The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NYG's biggest win to PHI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.

Dots further right are bigger PHI wins. Filled dots are sims where PHI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NYG covers.

Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.

PHI covers +3.0 in 57%
−21−14−7−30+3+7+14+21Market PHI +3.0← NYG wins by morePHI wins by more →
PHI covers NYG coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.

Players

Scoring
NYG GiantsFantasy points, PPR
PHI EaglesFantasy points, PPR
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
Team ratings in expected points added per play, as of kickoff
EPA per playNYGPHI
Pass offense−0.048−0.070
Rush offense−0.002−0.010
Pass defense, allowed+0.003+0.010
Rush defense, allowed+0.009+0.021
QB, per dropback−0.062−0.076