Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
KC covers NYJ coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
NYJ at KC
NYJ Jets2-7Geno Smith
KC Chiefs6-2Patrick Mahomes
- Line, published
- KC −7.0mkt −9.5
- Total
- 48.0mkt 48.5
- KC covers
- 43%
- Over 48.5
- 50%
- Median score
- 20–28
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NYJ's biggest win to KC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger KC wins. Filled dots are sims where KC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NYJ covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NYJ's biggest win to KC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger KC wins. Filled dots are sims where KC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NYJ covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
KC covers −9.5 in 43%
Players
NYJ JetsFantasy points, PPR
- Braelon Allen RB72 rush yds · 42 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.8 TD19.813–25
- Geno Smith QB245 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.611–20
- Mason Taylor TE48 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.3 TD10.86–15
- Kenyon Sadiq TE38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.64–12
- Adonai Mitchell WR32 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.33–10
- Jason Sanders KField goals and extra points7.04–10
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.23–9
- Isaiah Davis RB12 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.2 TD4.82–7
Jets D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.61–6- Isaiah Williams WR14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Tim Patrick WR13 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- Jelani Woods TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.30–3
- Breece Hall RB6 rush yds0.90–1
KC ChiefsFantasy points, PPR
- Kenneth Walker III RB103 rush yds · 38 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 1.2 TD24.517–31
- Patrick Mahomes QB268 pass yds · 2.0 pass TD · 16 rush yds19.615–24
- Travis Kelce TE55 rec yds · 4.7 catches · 0.4 TD12.77–17
- Xavier Worthy WR53 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.4 TD12.27–16
- Harrison Butker KField goals and extra points8.65–11
- Rashee Rice WR33 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD7.53–11
Chiefs D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.03–10- Emmett Johnson RB10 rush yds · 23 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.3 TD6.83–10
- Noah Gray TE23 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.32–8
- Jalen Royals WR18 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.11–6
- Cyrus Allen WR14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.30–5
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | NYJ | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.015 | +0.066 |
| Rush offense | −0.005 | +0.022 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.035 | +0.018 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.003 | −0.005 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.022 | +0.078 |