Week 9 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
CHI covers TB coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Soldier Field
TB at CHI
TB Buccaneers3-6Baker Mayfield
CHI Bears7-2Caleb Williams
- Line, published
- CHI −4.0mkt −6.0
- Total
- 44.0mkt 47.5
- CHI covers
- 43%
- Over 47.5
- 38%
- Median score
- 20–24
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TB's biggest win to CHI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CHI wins. Filled dots are sims where CHI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TB's biggest win to CHI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CHI wins. Filled dots are sims where CHI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
CHI covers −6.0 in 43%
Players
TB BuccaneersFantasy points, PPR
- Bucky Irving RB70 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.6 TD14.59–19
- Baker Mayfield QB215 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds13.19–17
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.26–15
- Emeka Egbuka WRQuestionable47 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims10.64–16
- Kenny Gainwell RB33 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.4 TD9.35–13
- Chase McLaughlin KField goals and extra points7.24–10
- Cade Otton TE29 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD6.63–9
Buccaneers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.72–8- Ted Hurst III WR24 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Tez Johnson WR17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
- Sean Tucker RB8 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.20–1
CHI BearsFantasy points, PPR
- D'Andre Swift RB71 rush yds · 28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.7 TD16.911–22
- Caleb Williams QB238 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.811–20
- Colston Loveland TE61 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.4 TD13.98–18
- Luther Burden III WR53 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD12.88–17
- Rome Odunze WR45 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
- Cairo Santos KField goals and extra points8.15–11
Bears D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.23–10- Roschon Johnson RB19 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.2 TD6.02–9
- Kalif Raymond WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Zavion Thomas WR11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Kyle Monangai RBQuestionable15 rush yds · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims2.30–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | TB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.026 | +0.066 |
| Rush offense | +0.016 | +0.017 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.062 | −0.014 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.014 | +0.009 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.019 | +0.073 |