Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NYJ covers BUF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· MetLife Stadium
BUF at NYJ
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen
70%NYJ Jets2-7Geno Smith
30%BUF wins 7,033 of 10,000 sims. Market: 78%
- Line
- NYJ +7.0mkt +8.5
- Total
- 48.0mkt 50.5
- NYJ covers
- 58%
- Over 50.5
- 43%
- Median score
- 27–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF wins | 70¢ | 80¢ | – |
| NYJ wins | 30¢ | 21¢ | – |
| BUF wins by 7+ | 50¢ | 58¢ | – |
| BUF wins by 8+ | 44¢ | 52¢ | – |
| BUF wins by 9+ | 42¢ | 47¢ | – |
| BUF wins by 10+ | 40¢ | 47¢ | – |
| BUF wins by 11+ | 35¢ | 43¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 47¢ | 58¢ | – |
| Over 49.5 points | 45¢ | 55¢ | – |
| Over 50.5 points | 43¢ | 51¢ | – |
| Over 51.5 points | 38¢ | 47¢ | – |
| Over 52.5 points | 36¢ | 45¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to NYJ's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NYJ wins. Filled dots are sims where NYJ covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to NYJ's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NYJ wins. Filled dots are sims where NYJ covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NYJ covers +8.5 in 58%
Players
BUF BillsFantasy points, PPR
- Josh Allen QB256 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 30 rush yds20.415–25
- James Cook RB91 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.9 TD17.911–23
- Khalil Shakir WR48 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.4 TD11.16–15
- Keon Coleman WR43 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.95–14
- Dalton Kincaid TE41 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.3 TD9.35–13
- DJ Moore WR37 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.3 TD8.84–12
- Tyler Bass KField goals and extra points8.65–11
Bills D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.93–10- Ty Johnson RB5 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD6.83–10
- Dawson Knox TE24 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.62–8
- Ray Davis RB9 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.81–4
NYJ JetsFantasy points, PPR
- Braelon Allen RB73 rush yds · 27 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.7 TD16.611–21
- Geno Smith QB235 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.910–19
- Garrett Wilson WR49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.36–15
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.64–12
- Adonai Mitchell WR34 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.74–11
- Mason Taylor TE33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.54–10
- Jason Sanders KField goals and extra points7.04–10
- Kenyon Sadiq TE24 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.1 TD5.42–8
- Breece Hall RB15 rush yds · 8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD3.91–5
Jets D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.61–6- Isaiah Davis RB12 rush yds · 8 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- Tim Patrick WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BUF | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.093 | −0.028 |
| Rush offense | +0.030 | −0.011 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.010 | +0.041 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.013 | +0.001 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.105 | −0.034 |