Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NO covers CAR coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Caesars Superdome
CAR at NO
CAR Panthers3-5Bryce Young
51%NO Saints3-5Tyler Shough
49%CAR wins 5,062 of 10,000 sims. Market: 45%
- Line
- NO +1.0mkt −2.5
- Total
- 46.0mkt 48.5
- NO covers
- 45%
- Over 48.5
- 43%
- Median score
- 23–23
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR wins | 51¢ | 45¢ | – |
| NO wins | 49¢ | 56¢ | – |
| NO wins by 2+ | 47¢ | 53¢ | – |
| NO wins by 3+ | 45¢ | 50¢ | – |
| NO wins by 4+ | 39¢ | 41¢ | – |
| NO wins by 5+ | 36¢ | 38¢ | – |
| Over 46.5 points | 50¢ | 58¢ | – |
| Over 47.5 points | 46¢ | 55¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 43¢ | 52¢ | – |
| Over 49.5 points | 40¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 50.5 points | 38¢ | 45¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CAR's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CAR covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CAR's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CAR covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NO covers −2.5 in 45%
Players
CAR PanthersFantasy points, PPR
- Chuba Hubbard RB83 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.9 TD19.813–25
- Bryce Young QB254 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 16 rush yds16.612–21
- Tetairoa McMillan WR63 rec yds · 5.7 catches · 0.4 TD14.49–19
- Jalen Coker WR38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.95–12
- Darren Waller TE36 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD8.34–12
- Ryan Fitzgerald KField goals and extra points7.95–11
- Tommy Tremble TE28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.53–9
Panthers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.93–9- John Metchie III WR25 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Mitchell Evans TE13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.10–4
- Brycen Tremayne WR12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.80–4
- Trevor Etienne RB9 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.80–2
- AJ Dillon RB1.20–1
NO SaintsFantasy points, PPR
- Tyler Shough QB246 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 29 rush yds17.913–22
- Chris Olave WR76 rec yds · 6.8 catches · 0.5 TD17.411–22
- Alvin Kamara RB49 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.6 TD14.99–19
- Devaughn Vele WR45 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.25–14
- NO kicker KField goals and extra points7.85–11
- Juwan Johnson TE32 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.33–10
Saints D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.93–9- Bryce Lance WR22 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
- Audric Estime RB26 rush yds · 0.2 TD3.81–5
- CJ Donaldson RB18 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- Noah Fant TE12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.80–4
- Jordyn Tyson WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
- Barion Brown WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.90–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | CAR | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.005 | −0.024 |
| Rush offense | +0.005 | −0.011 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.023 | +0.030 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.008 | +0.010 |
| QB, per dropback | 0.000 | −0.029 |