Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
CLE covers HOU coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Huntington Bank Field
HOU at CLE
HOU Texans3-5C.J. Stroud
57%CLE Browns5-4Deshaun Watson
43%HOU wins 5,672 of 10,000 sims. Market: 68%
- Line
- CLE +3.0mkt +4.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 40.5
- CLE covers
- 57%
- Over 40.5
- 57%
- Median score
- 23–20
CLE's listed starter Deshaun Watson didn't start last week (S.Sanders did). Check QB status before kickoff.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU wins | 57¢ | 68¢ | – |
| CLE wins | 43¢ | 32¢ | – |
| HOU wins by 3+ | 52¢ | 64¢ | – |
| HOU wins by 4+ | 47¢ | 55¢ | – |
| HOU wins by 5+ | 43¢ | 52¢ | – |
| HOU wins by 6+ | 41¢ | 49¢ | – |
| HOU wins by 7+ | 37¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 38.5 points | 64¢ | 56¢ | – |
| Over 39.5 points | 61¢ | 54¢ | – |
| Over 40.5 points | 57¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 41.5 points | 54¢ | 45¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to CLE's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CLE wins. Filled dots are sims where CLE covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to CLE's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CLE wins. Filled dots are sims where CLE covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
CLE covers +4.5 in 57%
Players
HOU TexansFantasy points, PPR
- C.J. Stroud QB246 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 21 rush yds16.612–21
- Woody Marks RB67 rush yds · 23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.6 TD14.99–19
- Xavier Hutchinson WR46 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.86–15
- Nico Collins WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
- Dalton Schultz TE39 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.05–12
- Ka'imi Fairbairn KField goals and extra points8.05–11
- Kayshon Boutte WR33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.43–10
Texans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.34–10- Tank Dell WR20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.62–7
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
- Foster Moreau TE13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
- David Montgomery RB16 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.31–3
- Emari Demercado RB6 rush yds1.80–2
CLE BrownsFantasy points, PPR
- Deshaun Watson QB233 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 23 rush yds15.210–19
- Denzel Boston WR56 rec yds · 5.2 catches · 0.3 TD12.88–17
- Quinshon Judkins RB62 rush yds · 15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.5 TD12.47–16
- KC Concepcion WR5 rush yds · 43 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.56–14
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE44 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.05–14
- Dylan Sampson RB15 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.04–11
- Andre Szmyt KField goals and extra points7.44–10
Browns D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.23–9- Jerry Jeudy WR27 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.23–9
- Jaleel McLaughlin RB8 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- Isaiah Bond WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.033 | −0.059 |
| Rush offense | −0.017 | −0.024 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.002 | −0.012 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.002 | +0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.032 | −0.067 |