Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
TEN covers JAX coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Nissan Stadium
JAX at TEN
JAX Jaguars6-2Trevor Lawrence
78%TEN Titans1-7Cam Ward
22%JAX wins 7,810 of 10,000 sims. Market: 83%
- Line
- TEN +10.0mkt +10.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 46.5
- TEN covers
- 55%
- Over 46.5
- 39%
- Median score
- 26–16
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX wins | 78¢ | 84¢ | – |
| TEN wins | 22¢ | 17¢ | – |
| JAX wins by 10+ | 50¢ | 56¢ | – |
| JAX wins by 11+ | 45¢ | 52¢ | – |
| Over 44.5 points | 43¢ | 55¢ | – |
| Over 45.5 points | 41¢ | 53¢ | – |
| Over 46.5 points | 38¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 47.5 points | 35¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 32¢ | 42¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from JAX's biggest win to TEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TEN wins. Filled dots are sims where TEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where JAX covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from JAX's biggest win to TEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TEN wins. Filled dots are sims where TEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where JAX covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
TEN covers +10.5 in 55%
Players
JAX JaguarsFantasy points, PPR
- Trevor Lawrence QB241 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 15 rush yds17.112–21
- Bhayshul Tuten RB70 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.7 TD14.49–19
- Parker Washington WR55 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.4 TD12.87–17
- Jakobi Meyers WR49 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.3 TD11.26–15
- Brenton Strange TE43 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.85–14
Jaguars D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed9.75–13- Cam Little KField goals and extra points8.96–12
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB33 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.3 TD7.03–10
- Nate Boerkircher TE17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.91–5
- Josh Cameron WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–5
- Travis Hunter CB11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.70–4
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RB10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- Ameer Abdullah RB14 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.10–2
TEN TitansFantasy points, PPR
- Tony Pollard RB81 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.6 TD15.810–20
- Cam Ward QB209 pass yds · 1.0 pass TD · 19 rush yds11.77–16
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR46 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.2 TD10.66–14
- Carnell Tate WR40 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.2 TD9.25–12
- Joey Slye KField goals and extra points6.23–9
- Elic Ayomanor WR24 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Gunnar Helm TE23 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.32–7
Titans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.41–7- Daniel Bellinger TE15 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Chimere Dike WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.31–5
- Tyjae Spears RB11 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD3.21–4
- Calvin Ridley WR12 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD2.80–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.045 | −0.097 |
| Rush offense | +0.011 | −0.007 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.044 | +0.043 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.012 | +0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.047 | −0.115 |