Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ATL covers KC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
KC at ATL
KC Chiefs6-2Patrick Mahomes
56%ATL Falcons3-6Michael Penix Jr.
44%KC wins 5,557 of 10,000 sims. Market: 62%
- Line
- ATL +3.0mkt +3.0
- Total
- 46.0mkt 47.5
- ATL covers
- 52%
- Over 47.5
- 45%
- Median score
- 24–22
ATL's listed starter Michael Penix Jr. didn't start last week (M.Penix did). Check QB status before kickoff.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC wins | 56¢ | 63¢ | – |
| ATL wins | 44¢ | 38¢ | – |
| KC wins by 2+ | 53¢ | 60¢ | – |
| KC wins by 3+ | 51¢ | 58¢ | – |
| KC wins by 4+ | 45¢ | 47¢ | – |
| KC wins by 5+ | 42¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 45.5 points | 50¢ | 57¢ | – |
| Over 46.5 points | 48¢ | 54¢ | – |
| Over 47.5 points | 45¢ | 50¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 42¢ | 47¢ | – |
| Over 49.5 points | 40¢ | 44¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from KC's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where KC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from KC's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where KC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ATL covers +3.0 in 52%
Players
KC ChiefsFantasy points, PPR
- Kenneth Walker III RB85 rush yds · 32 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.9 TD19.813–25
- Patrick Mahomes QB252 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 16 rush yds16.912–21
- Xavier Worthy WR51 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.76–16
- Travis Kelce TE50 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.3 TD11.57–15
- Rashee Rice WR37 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.2 TD8.44–12
- Harrison Butker KField goals and extra points8.05–11
Chiefs D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.23–9- Emmett Johnson RB12 rush yds · 19 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.2 TD6.13–9
- Noah Gray TE21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.82–7
- Jalen Royals WR17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
- Cyrus Allen WR14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–5
ATL FalconsFantasy points, PPR
- Bijan Robinson RB101 rush yds · 35 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 1.0 TD22.716–29
- Michael Penix Jr. QB230 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 20 rush yds15.311–19
- Drake London WR66 rec yds · 6.0 catches · 0.4 TD15.09–20
- Kyle Pitts TE44 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.15–14
- Jake Moody KField goals and extra points7.64–10
- Jahan Dotson WR30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
Falcons D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.62–8- Olamide Zaccheaus WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Khalil Herbert RB8 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD3.21–4
- Charlie Woerner TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Zachariah Branch WR10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | KC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.059 | −0.028 |
| Rush offense | +0.029 | +0.025 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.003 | −0.020 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.009 | −0.001 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.071 | −0.023 |