Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ARI covers LA coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· State Farm Stadium
LA at ARI
LA Rams5-4Matthew Stafford
70%ARI Cardinals3-6Gardner Minshew
30%LA wins 7,005 of 10,000 sims. Market: 80%
- Line
- ARI +7.0mkt +9.5
- Total
- 45.0mkt 39.5
- ARI covers
- 59%
- Over 39.5
- 67%
- Median score
- 26–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA wins | 70¢ | 81¢ | – |
| ARI wins | 30¢ | 20¢ | – |
| LA wins by 8+ | 45¢ | 56¢ | – |
| LA wins by 9+ | 43¢ | 53¢ | – |
| LA wins by 10+ | 41¢ | 50¢ | – |
| LA wins by 11+ | 36¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 38.5 points | 69¢ | 54¢ | – |
| Over 41.5 points | 61¢ | 42¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LA's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LA's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ARI covers +9.5 in 59%
Players
LA RamsFantasy points, PPR
- Puka Nacua WR107 rec yds · 9.3 catches · 0.8 TD25.218–31
- Matthew Stafford QB260 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 16 rush yds17.913–22
- Kyren Williams RB61 rush yds · 37 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.7 TD17.511–23
- Blake Corum RB42 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.4 TD9.65–13
- Brandon McManus KField goals and extra points8.65–11
Rams D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.04–11- Tyler Higbee TE31 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
- Colby Parkinson TE24 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.42–8
- Tutu Atwell WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Konata Mumpfield WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.60–5
- Davis Allen TE14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–4
ARI CardinalsFantasy points, PPR
- Trey McBride TE108 rec yds · 10.2 catches · 0.6 TD24.618–31
- Tyler Allgeier RB69 rush yds · 34 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.7 TD17.411–22
- Gardner Minshew QB235 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds13.89–18
- Bam Knight RB26 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.3 TD7.84–11
- Elijah Higgins TE31 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.13–10
- Chad Ryland KField goals and extra points6.94–10
- Reggie Virgil WR22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
Cardinals D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.62–7- Devin Duvernay WR9 rec yds · 0.9 catches2.10–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | LA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.037 | −0.047 |
| Rush offense | +0.020 | +0.008 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.031 | +0.053 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.019 | −0.014 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.048 | −0.059 |