Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
BAL covers LAC coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· M&T Bank Stadium
LAC at BAL
LAC Chargers0-8Justin Herbert
39%BAL Ravens4-5Tyler Huntley
61%BAL wins 6,086 of 10,000 sims. Market: 66%
- Line
- BAL −4.0mkt −4.5
- Total
- 39.0mkt 38.5
- BAL covers
- 47%
- Over 38.5
- 50%
- Median score
- 17–21
BAL's listed starter Tyler Huntley didn't start last week (D.Henry did). Check QB status before kickoff.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC wins | 39¢ | 34¢ | – |
| BAL wins | 61¢ | 67¢ | – |
| BAL wins by 3+ | 57¢ | 63¢ | – |
| BAL wins by 4+ | 50¢ | 54¢ | – |
| BAL wins by 5+ | 47¢ | 50¢ | – |
| BAL wins by 6+ | 45¢ | 47¢ | – |
| BAL wins by 7+ | 42¢ | 43¢ | – |
| Over 36.5 points | 57¢ | 61¢ | – |
| Over 37.5 points | 53¢ | 56¢ | – |
| Over 38.5 points | 50¢ | 52¢ | – |
| Over 39.5 points | 47¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 40.5 points | 44¢ | 46¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LAC's biggest win to BAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BAL wins. Filled dots are sims where BAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LAC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LAC's biggest win to BAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger BAL wins. Filled dots are sims where BAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LAC covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
BAL covers −4.5 in 47%
Players
LAC ChargersFantasy points, PPR
- Justin Herbert QB209 pass yds · 1.1 pass TD · 19 rush yds12.58–16
- Keaton Mitchell RB22 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.85–12
- Omarion Hampton RB41 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.3 TD8.75–12
- Kimani Vidal RB24 rush yds · 21 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.3 TD8.14–11
- Tre Harris WR31 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
- Oronde Gadsden II TE31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD6.93–10
- Cameron Dicker KField goals and extra points6.94–10
Chargers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.83–10- Quentin Johnston WR24 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Charlie Kolar TE24 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.1 TD5.42–8
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.12–6
- Ladd McConkey WR16 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
BAL RavensFantasy points, PPR
- Zay Flowers WR65 rec yds · 6.1 catches · 0.4 TD15.510–20
- Derrick Henry RB87 rush yds · 11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.7 TD14.99–19
- Tyler Huntley QB208 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.68–16
- Justice Hill RB19 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
Ravens D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.44–12- BAL kicker KField goals and extra points7.95–11
- Mark Andrews TE30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
- Rashod Bateman WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.22–7
- Josh Cuevas TE15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.51–5
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.30–5
- Matthew Hibner TE7 rec yds · 0.6 catches1.60–2
- Rasheen Ali RB6 rush yds0.80–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | LAC | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.078 | −0.046 |
| Rush offense | −0.035 | −0.004 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.015 | +0.010 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.002 | −0.009 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.080 | −0.055 |