Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
IND covers MIA coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lucas Oil Stadium
MIA at IND
MIA Dolphins1-7Malik Willis
44%IND Colts2-7Daniel Jones
56%IND wins 5,581 of 10,000 sims. Market: 64%
- Line
- IND −3.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 42.0mkt 38.5
- IND covers
- 46%
- Over 38.5
- 60%
- Median score
- 20–21
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA wins | 44¢ | 34¢ | – |
| IND wins | 56¢ | 67¢ | – |
| IND wins by 2+ | 53¢ | 64¢ | – |
| IND wins by 3+ | 51¢ | 62¢ | – |
| IND wins by 4+ | 46¢ | 53¢ | – |
| IND wins by 5+ | 42¢ | 49¢ | – |
| IND wins by 6+ | 40¢ | 46¢ | – |
| Over 36.5 points | 66¢ | 56¢ | – |
| Over 39.5 points | 57¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 40.5 points | 54¢ | 42¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIA's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIA's biggest win to IND's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger IND wins. Filled dots are sims where IND covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
IND covers −3.5 in 46%
Players
MIA DolphinsFantasy points, PPR
- Ollie Gordon II RB87 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.7 TD15.49–20
- Malik Willis QB214 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.88–17
- Malik Washington WR6 rush yds · 49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.97–16
- Greg Dulcich TE41 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.45–13
- MIA kicker KField goals and extra points7.34–10
- Chris Bell WR31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
- Caleb Douglas WR31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.23–10
Dolphins D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.63–10- Kevin Coleman Jr. WR25 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.1 TD5.92–8
- Jaylen Wright RB15 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.91–4
- Will Kacmarek TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
IND ColtsFantasy points, PPR
- Jonathan Taylor RB75 rush yds · 48 rec yds · 4.5 catches · 0.8 TD21.815–27
- Daniel Jones QB217 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 22 rush yds14.410–19
- Tyler Warren TE60 rec yds · 5.6 catches · 0.4 TD13.78–18
- Laquon Treadwell WR39 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Spencer Shrader KField goals and extra points7.75–10
Colts D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.23–10- Seth McGowan RB31 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.3 TD6.43–9
- Will Mallory TE17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD3.81–5
- Deion Burks WR16 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Ashton Dulin WR12 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.10–4
- Mo Alie-Cox TE9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
- DJ Giddens RB6 rush yds0.90–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | MIA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.045 | −0.089 |
| Rush offense | −0.004 | +0.020 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.034 | +0.010 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.012 | +0.012 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.050 | −0.091 |