Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
GB covers MIN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lambeau Field
MIN at GB
MIN Vikings6-2Kirk Cousins
35%GB Packers6-3Jordan Love
65%GB wins 6,542 of 10,000 sims. Market: 58%
- Line
- GB −5.0mkt −3.0
- Total
- 43.0mkt 42.5
- GB covers
- 58%
- Over 42.5
- 51%
- Median score
- 19–24
MIN's listed starter Kirk Cousins didn't start last week (C.Wentz did). Check QB status before kickoff.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN wins | 35¢ | 42¢ | – |
| GB wins | 65¢ | 59¢ | – |
| GB wins by 2+ | 63¢ | 57¢ | – |
| GB wins by 3+ | 61¢ | 54¢ | – |
| GB wins by 4+ | 55¢ | 46¢ | – |
| GB wins by 5+ | 52¢ | 42¢ | – |
| Over 40.5 points | 56¢ | 56¢ | – |
| Over 41.5 points | 53¢ | 53¢ | – |
| Over 42.5 points | 51¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 43.5 points | 47¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 44.5 points | 43¢ | 42¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIN's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIN's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
GB covers −3.0 in 58%
Players
MIN VikingsFantasy points, PPR
- Aaron Jones RB56 rush yds · 26 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.5 TD13.68–18
- Kirk Cousins QB232 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds13.49–17
- Justin Jefferson WR58 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.3 TD13.38–17
- T.J. Hockenson TE49 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 0.3 TD11.16–15
- Jordan Addison WR39 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.2 TD9.15–12
- Will Reichard KField goals and extra points7.04–10
Vikings D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.82–8- Jordan Mason RB26 rush yds · 8 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD5.62–8
- Myles Price WR15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.41–5
- Jauan Jennings WR13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD2.80–4
- Gavin Bartholomew TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Tai Felton WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches2.00–3
GB PackersFantasy points, PPR
- Matthew Golden WR79 rec yds · 7.1 catches · 0.5 TD18.112–23
- Jordan Love QB254 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 15 rush yds16.712–21
- Christian Watson WR58 rec yds · 5.2 catches · 0.4 TD13.38–18
- Tucker Kraft TE42 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD10.05–14
Packers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.44–12- Josh Jacobs RB29 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.3 TD8.44–12
- Trey Smack KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Pierre Strong RB18 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.2 TD5.92–8
- MarShawn Lloyd RB21 rush yds · 12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Savion Williams WR6 rush yds · 18 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.2 TD5.02–7
- Kaleb Johnson RB21 rush yds · 0.2 TD3.01–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | MIN | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.012 | +0.088 |
| Rush offense | −0.024 | −0.031 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.072 | −0.042 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.015 | −0.002 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.004 | +0.099 |