Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
DET covers NE coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· FC Bayern Munich Stadium
NE at DET
NE Patriots5-4Drake Maye
41%DET Lions6-2Jared Goff
59%DET wins 5,938 of 10,000 sims. Market: 57%
- Line
- DET −3.0mkt −2.5
- Total
- 51.0mkt 49.5
- DET covers
- 54%
- Over 49.5
- 53%
- Median score
- 24–27
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE wins | 41¢ | 43¢ | – |
| DET wins | 59¢ | 58¢ | – |
| DET wins by 2+ | 57¢ | 55¢ | – |
| DET wins by 3+ | 54¢ | 53¢ | – |
| DET wins by 4+ | 48¢ | 43¢ | – |
| DET wins by 5+ | 44¢ | 41¢ | – |
| Over 47.5 points | 59¢ | 58¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 56¢ | 54¢ | – |
| Over 49.5 points | 53¢ | 51¢ | – |
| Over 50.5 points | 51¢ | 48¢ | – |
| Over 51.5 points | 47¢ | 45¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NE's biggest win to DET's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DET wins. Filled dots are sims where DET covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from NE's biggest win to DET's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DET wins. Filled dots are sims where DET covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where NE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
DET covers −2.5 in 54%
Players
NE PatriotsFantasy points, PPR
- Drake Maye QB271 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 21 rush yds19.214–24
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB56 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.7 TD15.710–20
- DeMario Douglas WR54 rec yds · 4.7 catches · 0.4 TD12.47–17
- Hunter Henry TE43 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.85–13
- Eli Raridon TE41 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.45–13
- Efton Chism III WR37 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.3 TD8.44–12
- Andy Borregales KField goals and extra points7.54–10
- A.J. Brown WR26 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.92–8
- Corey Kiner RB31 rush yds · 0.2 TD4.82–7
- Mack Hollins WR18 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
Patriots D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.71–6- Kyle Williams WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.60–5
DET LionsFantasy points, PPR
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB90 rush yds · 42 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 1.1 TD23.216–29
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR84 rec yds · 7.2 catches · 0.6 TD19.513–25
- Jared Goff QB265 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 16 rush yds19.414–24
- Sam LaPorta TE47 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.96–15
- Jameson Williams WR47 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD10.86–15
- Jake Bates KField goals and extra points8.25–11
Lions D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.12–8- Isaac TeSlaa WR22 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.2 TD5.12–7
- Sione Vaki RB19 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.2 TD4.72–7
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | NE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.064 | +0.090 |
| Rush offense | −0.011 | +0.006 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.016 | +0.029 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.006 | −0.002 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.072 | +0.106 |