Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
CIN covers PIT coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Paycor Stadium
PIT at CIN
PIT Steelers6-2Aaron Rodgers
30%CIN Bengals6-2Joe Burrow
70%CIN wins 6,997 of 10,000 sims. Market: 62%
- Line
- CIN −7.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 48.0mkt 49.5
- CIN covers
- 60%
- Over 49.5
- 46%
- Median score
- 21–27
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT wins | 30¢ | 38¢ | – |
| CIN wins | 70¢ | 63¢ | – |
| CIN wins by 2+ | 67¢ | 60¢ | – |
| CIN wins by 3+ | 65¢ | 58¢ | – |
| CIN wins by 4+ | 60¢ | 50¢ | – |
| CIN wins by 5+ | 56¢ | 47¢ | – |
| CIN wins by 6+ | 53¢ | 44¢ | – |
| Over 47.5 points | 51¢ | 57¢ | – |
| Over 48.5 points | 48¢ | 54¢ | – |
| Over 49.5 points | 46¢ | 50¢ | – |
| Over 50.5 points | 42¢ | 47¢ | – |
| Over 51.5 points | 39¢ | 43¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to CIN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CIN wins. Filled dots are sims where CIN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PIT's biggest win to CIN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger CIN wins. Filled dots are sims where CIN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PIT covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
CIN covers −3.5 in 60%
Players
PIT SteelersFantasy points, PPR
- Jaylen Warren RB69 rush yds · 35 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.7 TD17.912–23
- Aaron Rodgers QB243 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.710–19
- DK Metcalf WR64 rec yds · 6.0 catches · 0.4 TD14.79–19
- Germie Bernard WR51 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD11.77–16
- Pat Freiermuth TE34 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD8.14–11
- Darnell Washington TE33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.64–11
- Rico Dowdle RB27 rush yds · 16 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.3 TD7.54–10
- Chris Boswell KField goals and extra points7.14–10
Steelers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.31–7
CIN BengalsFantasy points, PPR
- Joe Burrow QB277 pass yds · 2.0 pass TD · 21 rush yds20.215–25
- Ja'Marr Chase WR83 rec yds · 7.2 catches · 0.6 TD19.213–24
- Chase Brown RB58 rush yds · 45 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.8 TD19.113–25
- Tee Higgins WR66 rec yds · 5.7 catches · 0.5 TD15.39–20
- Evan McPherson KField goals and extra points8.65–11
Bengals D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.44–10- Samaje Perine RB36 rush yds · 0.3 TD7.23–10
- Dohnte Meyers WR29 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.93–10
- Mike Gesicki TE25 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Mitchell Tinsley WR11 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.048 | +0.080 |
| Rush offense | +0.038 | +0.003 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.003 | +0.015 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.012 | +0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.053 | +0.083 |