Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
LV covers SEA coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Allegiant Stadium
SEA at LV
SEA Seahawks5-4Sam Darnold
68%LV Raiders4-5Fernando Mendoza
32%SEA wins 6,789 of 10,000 sims. Market: 72%
- Line
- LV +6.0mkt +6.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 40.5
- LV covers
- 52%
- Over 40.5
- 52%
- Median score
- 24–17
LV's listed starter Fernando Mendoza didn't start last week (K.Cousins did). Check QB status before kickoff.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA wins | 68¢ | 73¢ | – |
| LV wins | 32¢ | 28¢ | – |
| SEA wins by 5+ | 54¢ | 58¢ | – |
| SEA wins by 6+ | 51¢ | 56¢ | – |
| SEA wins by 7+ | 48¢ | 51¢ | – |
| SEA wins by 8+ | 42¢ | 43¢ | – |
| Over 40.5 points | 52¢ | 50¢ | – |
| Over 41.5 points | 48¢ | 47¢ | – |
| Over 42.5 points | 46¢ | 44¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SEA's biggest win to LV's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LV wins. Filled dots are sims where LV covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SEA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SEA's biggest win to LV's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LV wins. Filled dots are sims where LV covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SEA covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
LV covers +6.5 in 52%
Players
SEA SeahawksFantasy points, PPR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR82 rec yds · 7.3 catches · 0.5 TD19.113–24
- Sam Darnold QB234 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.311–19
- Emanuel Wilson RB51 rush yds · 8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.4 TD9.25–13
Seahawks D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.95–12- AJ Barner TE5 rush yds · 34 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD8.44–12
- Jason Myers KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Cooper Kupp WR31 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD7.03–10
- Jadarian Price RB18 rush yds · 13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.52–8
- Zach Charbonnet RB22 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD5.22–7
- Tory Horton WR22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD5.12–7
- Rashid Shaheed WR20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.62–7
- George Holani RB14 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD4.21–6
LV RaidersFantasy points, PPR
- Ashton Jeanty RB36 rush yds · 41 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.4 TD14.49–19
- Brock Bowers TE58 rec yds · 5.6 catches · 0.3 TD13.48–18
- Fernando Mendoza QB223 pass yds · 1.1 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.48–16
- Tre Tucker WR43 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.2 TD9.96–13
- Mike Washington Jr. RB47 rush yds · 0.3 TD7.64–10
- Michael Mayer TE32 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.34–10
- Matt Gay KField goals and extra points6.84–10
Raiders D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.52–8- Jalen Nailor WR20 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD4.72–7
- Cody White WR12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | SEA | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.011 | −0.058 |
| Rush offense | −0.020 | −0.032 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.049 | +0.036 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.007 | +0.007 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.012 | −0.083 |