Week 10 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
DAL covers SF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· AT&T Stadium
SF at DAL
SF 49ers7-1Brock Purdy
61%DAL Cowboys4-5Dak Prescott
39%SF wins 6,079 of 10,000 sims. Market: 64%
- Line
- DAL +3.0mkt +3.5
- Total
- 53.0mkt 55.5
- DAL covers
- 51%
- Over 55.5
- 41%
- Median score
- 28–24
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 12 points of the median.
Prices
Price to buy, cents ·
| Contract | Sims | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF wins | 61¢ | 66¢ | – |
| DAL wins | 39¢ | 35¢ | – |
| SF wins by 2+ | 58¢ | 64¢ | – |
| SF wins by 3+ | 56¢ | 61¢ | – |
| SF wins by 4+ | 49¢ | 53¢ | – |
| SF wins by 5+ | 46¢ | 49¢ | – |
| SF wins by 6+ | 42¢ | 45¢ | – |
| Over 53.5 points | 48¢ | 58¢ | – |
| Over 54.5 points | 45¢ | 55¢ | – |
| Over 55.5 points | 41¢ | 52¢ | – |
| Over 56.5 points | 39¢ | 49¢ | – |
| Over 57.5 points | 36¢ | 46¢ | – |
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SF's biggest win to DAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DAL wins. Filled dots are sims where DAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from SF's biggest win to DAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DAL wins. Filled dots are sims where DAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where SF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
DAL covers +3.5 in 51%
Players
SF 49ersFantasy points, PPR
- Christian McCaffrey RB60 rush yds · 55 rec yds · 4.6 catches · 1.0 TD21.815–28
- Brock Purdy QB277 pass yds · 2.1 pass TD · 26 rush yds21.516–26
- George Kittle TE74 rec yds · 6.3 catches · 0.6 TD17.011–22
- Mike Evans WR42 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.3 TD9.65–13
- Eddy Pineiro KField goals and extra points8.35–11
- Kaelon Black RB37 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.4 TD7.63–11
- Jordan Watkins WR25 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
49ers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.92–7- Jacob Cowing WR19 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
- Brandin Cooks WR18 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.21–6
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD3.51–5
- Kyle Juszczyk FB14 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.30–5
- Demarcus Robinson WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.10–3
DAL CowboysFantasy points, PPR
- CeeDee Lamb WR102 rec yds · 8.9 catches · 0.7 TD23.316–29
- Dak Prescott QB271 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 17 rush yds19.114–24
- Javonte Williams RB71 rush yds · 21 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.7 TD15.49–20
- George Pickens WR43 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.85–13
- Ryan Flournoy WR35 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD8.14–11
- Brandon Aubrey KField goals and extra points7.65–10
- Tyler Goodson RB24 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.3 TD5.72–8
- Brevyn Spann-Ford TE24 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.2 TD5.52–8
- Jake Ferguson TE18 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.01–6
Cowboys D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed3.61–6- Jonathan Mingo WR12 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.70–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | SF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.091 | +0.060 |
| Rush offense | +0.021 | +0.016 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.004 | +0.051 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.022 | +0.024 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.104 | +0.065 |