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NBA games

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls

ATL HawksRested
71%
CHI BullsRested
30%

Hawks win 7,050 of 10,000 sims. Market: 71%.

Spread
ATL −8.2mkt ATL −6.5
CHI covers
45%
Total
242.1mkt 245.5
Over 245.5
43%
Median score
125–117

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
ContractSimsBookKalshi
Hawks win71¢71¢71¢
Bulls win30¢29¢30¢

How the 10,000 games ended

20%20+12%15–1914%10–1414%5–910%1–412%1–48%5–95%10–142%15–192%20+
← ATL wins byCHI wins by →

Who plays, and how much

Projected minutes and stats, before the starting lineups are out

Hawks

Atlanta Hawks: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Jalen Johnson3419.09.86.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker3122.23.02.4
Dyson Daniels3110.27.55.9
Onyeka Okongwu3013.07.62.4
Aaron Wiggins2613.83.52.6
CJ McCollum2514.02.93.9
Luguentz Dort259.03.11.6
Jock Landale145.73.61.7
Kingston FlemingsDay-To-Day145.21.62.7
Zuby Ejiofor83.62.21.0
RayJ Dennis20.60.30.3

Out: Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye, Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar

Bulls

Chicago Bulls: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Josh Giddey3312.26.59.8
Matas Buzelis3116.66.22.6
Jalen Smith2814.77.71.8
Isaac Okoro237.11.91.8
Tre Jones2214.93.03.7
Norman PowellDay-To-Day2013.21.81.2
Noa Essengue166.13.90.7
Leonard Miller156.83.50.9
Jordan Hawkins115.61.40.8
Buddy Hield115.61.51.2
Zach Collins73.52.30.7
Nic Claxton72.81.90.8

Out: Tobe Awaka, Caleb Wilson

Each player has a rating (points per 48 minutes his teams gained or lost with him on the floor, anchored to his box-score production) and projected minutes from his recent games. Players listed out on the injury report are removed and their minutes go to teammates; day-to-day players keep part of theirs. Home court and the second night of a back-to-back are counted. Then the game is played 10,000 times.