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NBA games

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

GS WarriorsRested
29%
SA SpursRested
71%

Spurs win 7,131 of 10,000 sims. Market: 84%.

Spread
SA −8.0mkt SA −12.5
SA covers
37%
Total
229.8mkt 217.5
Over 217.5
77%
Median score
111–119

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
ContractSimsBookKalshi
Warriors win29¢16¢16¢
Spurs win71¢84¢85¢

How the 10,000 games ended

2%20+4%15–195%10–149%5–99%1–415%1–414%5–913%10–1411%15–1918%20+
← GS wins bySA wins by →

Who plays, and how much

Projected minutes and stats, before the starting lineups are out

Warriors

Golden State Warriors: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Brandin Podziemski3619.94.63.9
Yaxel Lendeborg3422.97.83.9
Draymond Green283.95.57.9
De'Anthony Melton2410.44.42.5
Georges Niang228.63.31.6
Al Horford195.43.72.3
Gui Santos197.63.71.8
Will Richard194.72.20.9
Gary Payton II146.11.80.6
Charles BasseyDay-To-Day84.83.50.4
Graham Ike84.22.10.8
LJ Cryer73.40.50.7

Out: Jimmy Butler III, Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandon Williams

Spurs

San Antonio Spurs: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Dylan Harper3217.35.44.8
Victor Wembanyama3030.311.73.1
Stephon Castle2914.06.05.9
Julian Champagnie269.73.91.5
Keldon Johnson2510.26.02.1
Devin VassellDay-To-Day187.12.31.6
De'Aaron FoxDay-To-Day189.22.53.7
Luke Kornet153.84.01.2
Harrison Barnes135.20.80.3
Carter Bryant104.31.20.9
Maliq Brown60.00.06.0
Ja'Kobi Gillespie67.50.00.0

Out: Tobias Harris, Jayden Quaintance

Each player has a rating (points per 48 minutes his teams gained or lost with him on the floor, anchored to his box-score production) and projected minutes from his recent games. Players listed out on the injury report are removed and their minutes go to teammates; day-to-day players keep part of theirs. Home court and the second night of a back-to-back are counted. Then the game is played 10,000 times.