ClosingLine
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NBA games

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers

DAL MavericksRested
44%
CLE CavaliersBack-to-back
56%

Cavaliers win 5,590 of 10,000 sims. Market: –.

Spread
CLE −2.1mkt –
CLE covers
–
Total
234.3mkt –
Over
–
Median score
116–118

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
ContractSimsBookKalshi
Mavericks win44¢–43¢
Cavaliers win56¢–59¢

How the 10,000 games ended

7%20+6%15–199%10–1412%5–911%1–415%1–413%5–910%10–148%15–1910%20+
← DAL wins byCLE wins by →

Who plays, and how much

Projected minutes and stats, before the starting lineups are out

Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Cooper Flagg3424.77.56.1
P.J. Washington3113.97.40.9
Kyrie Irving3121.93.24.4
Zaccharie Risacher237.95.11.5
Naji Marshall2210.42.83.4
Daniel Gafford218.85.31.6
Caleb Martin194.32.51.2
Walter Clayton Jr.178.12.53.8
Marcus Sasser113.80.91.3
Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day104.22.90.7
Max ChristieDay-To-Day103.61.30.6
Santi Aldama62.91.50.5

Out: Tarik Biberovic, Sergio de Larrea, Dereck Lively II

Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Donovan Mitchell3425.45.55.5
James Harden3418.84.55.8
Peyton Watson2913.05.43.3
Jarrett Allen2614.99.01.2
Jaylon Tyson2210.03.62.5
Meleek Thomas2212.32.61.1
Mario Hezonja208.15.61.6
Tyrese Proctor198.63.22.7
Craig Porter Jr.81.81.61.2
Thomas Bryant84.22.20.2
Riley Minix63.11.00.3
Norchad Omier62.82.00.8

Out: Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley

Each player has a rating (points per 48 minutes his teams gained or lost with him on the floor, anchored to his box-score production) and projected minutes from his recent games. Players listed out on the injury report are removed and their minutes go to teammates; day-to-day players keep part of theirs. Home court and the second night of a back-to-back are counted. Then the game is played 10,000 times.